Severna Park '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.87 (fleet 1.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–20 (5%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 1–20 against 3.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-15 | MDISA Team Race 1 | skipper | 0.92 | 0.39 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.53 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2019-04-06 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.94 | -2.06 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.96 | -2.04 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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