MDISA Fleet Race - 9/28

HostDC Sail
Date09/28/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	27	27	54
2	Yorktown High School	Patriots	29	34	63
3	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	35	47	82
4	Severn School	Admirals	26	67	93
5	Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	88	25	113
6	Annapolis High School	Panthers	68	50	118
7	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	66	57	123
8	Key School	Zags	45	87	132
9	Severna Park	Falcons	64	69	133
10	South River High School	Seahawks	54	94	148
11	Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	99	59	158
12	Broadneck High School	Bruins	79	92	171
13	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	86	89	175
14	Washington Latin	Lions	99	80	179
15	Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	96	92	188

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	2	5	2	4	1	1	6	5	26	Zander King '21 Hayden Lamb '20
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	4	6	6	1	2	4	1	3	27	Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Yorktown High School	Patriots	3	1	1	8	11	2	2	1	29	Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	1	3	5	3	7	3	11	2	35	James Golden '20 [1-8] Amelia Johnson '21 [1-4] Jessica Groblewski '21 [5-8]
Key School	Zags	7	2	4	6	4	7	8	7	45	Charles Anderson '21 Emma Kissel '22
South River High School	Seahawks	8	7	3	2	15	8	7	4	54	Bryce Ricewoolf '20 Rachel O'Neil '20
Severna Park	Falcons	5	13	8	9	13	5	5	6	64	Camden Ward '20 Grace O'Brien '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	12	9	10	5	5	12	4	9	66	Anna Groszkowski '22 Ty Ryan '22
Annapolis High School	Panthers	6	4	11	DSQ	9	11	3	8	68	Carter O'Neill '20 Adam Ginsburg '23
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	10	9	7	6	13	9	12	79	Josh Becker '20 Emilie Orendorff '22
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	9	11	13	10	10	9	10	14	86	Tehya Gaines '21 Julia Marino '20
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	10	12	12	11	14	6	12	11	88	Gabe Paier '21 Nick Bus '21
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	14	14	15	12	3	14	14	10	96	No Show No Show
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	11	15	7	13	12	15	13	13	99	Sam Rifkind-Brown '21 Phoebe Pressler '21
Washington Latin	Lions	15	8	14	14	8	10	15	15	99	Natalie Aramendia '21 Donovan Kuo '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	10	3	2	3	1	1	1	4	25	Peter Lobaugh '20 Thomas Leggett '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	1	1	1	1	4	12	2	5	27	Matt Budington '21 [1-8] Anna Grolleman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Yorktown High School	Patriots	2	6	7	2	8	2	5	2	34	Conrad Schofield '23 William Bernhardt '21
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	5	4	9	DNF	5	3	4	1	47	Chase Conway '22 Zoe Hoctor '21
Annapolis High School	Panthers	4	10	6	4	9	4	7	6	50	Cole Canuel '23 Isabella Fadullon '23
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	3	7	5	7	3	OCS	6	10	57	Griffin Richardson '21 [1-8] Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-2, 5-6] Joaquin Marquez '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	7	5	4	10	10	6	8	9	59	No Show No Show
Severn School	Admirals	6	OCS	8	13	2	OCS	3	3	67	Patrick Dolan '21 Cole Petrinko '21
Severna Park	Falcons	11	2	3	6	12	8	14	13	69	Connor Killeen '21 [1-6] Douglas Patrick '20 [7-8] Janie Powell '21 [1-6]
Washington Latin	Lions	9	8	OCS	9	7	5	15	11	80	Arabella Dixon '22 Sarah Henderson '22
Key School	Zags	8	9	10	14	13	7	12	14	87	Max Shapiro '20 [1-6] Griffin Dugan '21 [7-8] Marissa Loftus '22 [1-6]
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	14	13	13	8	14	9	11	7	89	Andrew Norris '20 Libby Schug '20
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	12	12	OCS	11	6	10	9	DSQ	92	Wynn Williams '22 Ethan Schwartz '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	11	12	12	11	11	10	12	92	Caitlin Rosner '21 [1-2, 5-6] Ronald Weed '21 [3-4, 7-8] Lily Newman '21 [1-2, 5-6] Kate Brock-Dorsey '22 [3-4, 7-8]
South River High School	Seahawks	15	14	11	5	15	13	13	8	94	Josh Powell '22 Vaughan Hood '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Broadneck High School Bruins	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Key School Zags	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Leonardtown High School Raiders	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Severn School Admirals	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Severna Park Falcons	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1
South River High School Seahawks	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4
Washington Latin Lions	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5
Yorktown High School Patriots	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Broadneck High School Bruins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Key School Zags	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Leonardtown High School Raiders	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Severn School Admirals	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1
Severna Park Falcons	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2
South River High School Seahawks	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5
Washington Latin Lions	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6
Yorktown High School Patriots	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Carter O'Neill '20	Adam Ginsburg '23
Panthers	Cole Canuel '23	Isabella Fadullon '23
Archbishop Spalding	Anna Groszkowski '22	Ty Ryan '22
Cavaliers	Griffin Richardson '21 [1-8]	Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-2, 5-6] Joaquin Marquez '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Nick Budington '21	Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron	Matt Budington '21 [1-8]	Anna Grolleman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Bishop O'Connell High School	Gabe Paier '21	Nick Bus '21
Knights	Peter Lobaugh '20	Thomas Leggett '21
Broadneck High School	Josh Becker '20	Emilie Orendorff '22
Bruins	Caitlin Rosner '21 [1-2, 5-6] Ronald Weed '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Lily Newman '21 [1-2, 5-6] Kate Brock-Dorsey '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Georgetown Day School	Sam Rifkind-Brown '21	Phoebe Pressler '21
Georgetown Day	No Show	No Show
Key School	Charles Anderson '21	Emma Kissel '22
Zags	Max Shapiro '20 [1-6] Griffin Dugan '21 [7-8]	Marissa Loftus '22 [1-6]
Leonardtown High School	Tehya Gaines '21	Julia Marino '20
Raiders	Andrew Norris '20	Libby Schug '20
Severn School	Zander King '21	Hayden Lamb '20
Admirals	Patrick Dolan '21	Cole Petrinko '21
Severna Park	Camden Ward '20	Grace O'Brien '20
Falcons	Connor Killeen '21 [1-6] Douglas Patrick '20 [7-8]	Janie Powell '21 [1-6]
South River High School	Bryce Ricewoolf '20	Rachel O'Neil '20
Seahawks	Josh Powell '22	Vaughan Hood '20
St. Mary's High School (MD)	James Golden '20 [1-8]	Amelia Johnson '21 [1-4] Jessica Groblewski '21 [5-8]
Saints	Chase Conway '22	Zoe Hoctor '21
Walt Whitman High School	No Show	No Show
Varsity	Wynn Williams '22	Ethan Schwartz '20
Washington Latin	Natalie Aramendia '21	Donovan Kuo '23
Lions	Arabella Dixon '22	Sarah Henderson '22
Yorktown High School	Colman Schofield '21	Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots	Conrad Schofield '23	William Bernhardt '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MDISA Fleet Race - 9/28

Division A

Division B

From the notes