Kent Island JV Regatta 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 7 7 14
2 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 5 15 20
3 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 15 12 27
4 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 17 28 45
5 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 24 23 47
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 29 22 51
7 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 32 19 51
8 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 26 29 55
9 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 29 27 56
10 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 37 38 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1 2 1 1 5 Chase Conway '22
Juliette Troxell '21
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 1 2 2 7 Thomas Johnson '20
Isabella Fadullon '21
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 4 5 3 3 15 Alex Walters '18
Will Hearn '18
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 6 3 4 4 17 Connor Killeen '21
Carson Kraycik '19
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 3 4 8 9 24 Crispin Blamphin '18 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Riley Van Liew '20 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 5 7 6 8 26 Christopher Callaghan '20
Timothy Dixon '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 8 7 6 29 Steven Twemlow '20
Addison Musick '20
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins OCS 6 5 7 29 Morgan Carew '21 [1-2]
Josh Becker '20 [3-4]
Josh Becker '20 [1-2]
Morgan Carew '21 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 9 9 5 32 Dale Vanmeter '19
Finnegan Ludwig '23
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 10 10 10 37 Karl Wagerson '18
Josephine Froelich '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 1 3 2 7 Cole Canuel '22 [1-2]
Carter O'Neill '20 [3-4]
Chris Adkins '20 [1-2]
Josiah Chase '21 [3-4]
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 4 4 1 12 Skylor Sweet '22 [1-2]
Morgan Essex '19 [3-4]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Cottage '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 2 8 3 15 Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-2]
Cole Wiegand '21 [3-4]
Bridget Bisson '21 [1-2]
Lucy Duckett '21 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 5 2 6 19 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Braedon Myers '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 8 1 8 22 Audrey Commerford '21
Hannah Davis '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 7 7 5 4 23 Ellie Yorio '20 [1-2]
Corbin Voorhes '21 [3-4]
Katie Norman '19 [1-2]
Mary Macdonald '20 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 10 3 7 7 27 Ronald Weed '21 [1-4]
Katie White '20 [1-2]
Ben White '21 [3-4]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 8 9 6 5 28 Camden Ward '20 [1-2]
Selah Tatem '18 [3-4]
Selah Tatem '18 [1-2]
Blake Bierdeman '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 4 6 9 10 29 Olivia Taylor '19 [1-2]
Brady Kinslow '20 [3-4]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2]
Jacob Richardson '20 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 9 10 10 9 38 Patrick Elwood '20
Kelsey Bonham '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers5577
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron6688
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins881010
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets101022
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers1133
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders2244
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors3355
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons9911
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights4466
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints7799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers6688
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron7799
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins9911
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets1133
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers2244
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders3355
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors4466
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons101022
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights5577
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Thomas Johnson '20 Isabella Fadullon '21
Panthers Cole Canuel '22 [1-2]
Carter O'Neill '20 [3-4]
Chris Adkins '20 [1-2]
Josiah Chase '21 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Karl Wagerson '18 Josephine Froelich '18
Battlin' Baron Patrick Elwood '20 Kelsey Bonham '18
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Morgan Carew '21 [1-2]
Josh Becker '20 [3-4]
Josh Becker '20 [1-2]
Morgan Carew '21 [3-4]
Bruins Ronald Weed '21 [1-4] Katie White '20 [1-2]
Ben White '21 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Dale Vanmeter '19 Finnegan Ludwig '23
Hornets Lochlann Ludwig '21 Braedon Myers '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Crispin Blamphin '18 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Riley Van Liew '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers Ellie Yorio '20 [1-2]
Corbin Voorhes '21 [3-4]
Katie Norman '19 [1-2]
Mary Macdonald '20 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Steven Twemlow '20 Addison Musick '20
Raiders Audrey Commerford '21 Hannah Davis '20
North East River High School North East River High School Alex Walters '18 Will Hearn '18
Road Warriors Skylor Sweet '22 [1-2]
Morgan Essex '19 [3-4]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Cottage '21 [3-4]
Severna Park Severna Park Connor Killeen '21 Carson Kraycik '19
Falcons Camden Ward '20 [1-2]
Selah Tatem '18 [3-4]
Selah Tatem '18 [1-2]
Blake Bierdeman '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Chase Conway '22 Juliette Troxell '21
Saints Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-2]
Cole Wiegand '21 [3-4]
Bridget Bisson '21 [1-2]
Lucy Duckett '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Christopher Callaghan '20 Timothy Dixon '20
Knights Olivia Taylor '19 [1-2]
Brady Kinslow '20 [3-4]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2]
Jacob Richardson '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1021.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1021.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →