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2018 Atlantic Coast Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 21 20 41
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 25 34 59
3 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 43 69 112
4 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 76 42 118
5 Severn School Severn School Admirals 70 62 132
6 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 112 67 179
7 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 115 76 191
8 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 92 100 192
9 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 76 117 193
10 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 121 95 216
11 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 97 127 224
12 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 121 106 227
13 Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 128 105 233
14 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 113 129 242
15 Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Panthers -Varsity 89 189 278
16 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 132 154 286
17 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 136 157 293
18 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 185 122 307
19 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 178 148 326
20 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 173 185 358
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 4 5 21 Luke Arnone '19
Blake Epstein '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 6 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 25 Boyd Bragg '19 [1-10]
Jeff Elkin '20 [1-2, 4]
Carson Rozell '19 [3]
Reese Bragg '21 [5-10]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 2 2 3 7 5 3 3 6 11 43 Lachlain Mc Granaham '20 [1-10]
Adam Kaplan '21 [1-4]
Hannah Bast '21 [5-10]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 3 19 11 5 3 4 13 7 2 70 Jordan Bruce '20 [1-10]
Marcus Adam '19 [1-4]
Addi Harris '20 [5-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 4 4 4 9 6 14 18 3 10 76 James Golden '20
Amelia Johnson '21
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 9 15 11 8 4 10 9 5 1 4 76 Grant Adam '19
Anna O'Connor '20
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Panthers -Varsity 11 16 8 7 2 8 5 8 9 15 89 Mathieu Dale '21
Elyssa Franklin '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 12 7 6 10 11 16 12 10 5 3 92 Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-10]
Tom Green '19 [1-4]
Nate Ertle '20 [5-10]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 7 5 17 17 6 18 6 6 8 7 97 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 16 9 5 6 17 7 15 11 10 16 112 Daniel Hughes '21 [1-10]
Teddy Bueres '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Roberto Lugones '20 [5-6]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 10 13 9 5 RAF 4 16 7 15 13 113 Jamie Paul '19 [1-4, 6-10]
Quinn Sheehan '19 [5]
Garrett Cutler '19 [1-2]
John Sisk '19 [3-4]
Will Donovan '21 [5-10]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 15 10 14 13 16 11 8 4 18 6 115 Nate Olmsted '19 [1-4]
Graham Ness '19 [5-10]
Lucia Loosbrock '21 [1-4]
Annika Irene '19 [5-10]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 6 11 7 16 14 13 7 15 14 18 121 Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-10]
Kaleigh Morgan '19 [1-4]
Drew Dillon '19 [5-10]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 13 12 10 DSQ 10 9 11 9 17 9 121 Joey Meagher '20 [1-10]
Trent Shaw '20 [1-4]
Emma Asturias '20 [5-8]
Kenna Reed '20 [9-10]
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 14 17 12 9 12 17 10 14 11 12 128 Ian Reimel '19
Maren Matthews '22
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 8 8 DNF 14 13 12 13 16 13 14 132 Quinn Keenan '19 [1-10]
Zach Nagel '19 [1-2]
Nathan Whisner '19 [3-5]
Izzy Cox '19 [6-10]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 17 14 15 12 8 14 17 19 12 8 136 Beckett Kumler '20
Nathaniel Barret '19
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 18 18 18 15 15 15 20 17 20 17 173 Luke Hosek '20
Lauren Mellinger '21
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 20 20 16 18 18 19 19 12 16 20 178 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 19 19 13 19 19 20 18 20 19 19 185 Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-10]
Joshua Keegan '20 [1-4]
Ellie Menszer '22 [5-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 7 1 3 20 Cameron Giblin '19 [1-10]
Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-4]
Will Beyer '20 [5-10]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 3 6 2 1 3 3 2 3 1 34 Benton Amthor '19 [1-10]
Duke Cowart '19 [1-2]
Nathan Smith '20 [3-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 5 4 12 5 5 2 1 2 2 42 Trevor Davis '20 [1-10]
William Cornell '19 [1-4]
Jessica Groblewski '21 [5-10]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 8 1 3 9 7 6 5 4 4 15 62 Owen Hennessey '21 [1-7, 9-10]
Caroline Bayless '19 [8]
Caroline Bayless '19 [1-4]
Andrea Riefkohl '20 [5-7, 9-10]
Abby Tindall '19 [8]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 9 2 5 8 7 6 8 8 9 67 Kyle Bramson '20 [1-10]
Chris Purcell '21 [1-4]
Karen Liberman '20 [5-10]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 6 12 8 3 11 2 8 6 7 6 69 Julia Johansson '19 [1-10]
Bernat Miro '19 [1-4]
Claire Holzman '21 [5-10]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 8 5 11 4 11 7 9 5 13 76 Matthew Kickhafer '19 [1-10]
Audrey Cote '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Graham Ness '19 [3-4]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 12 6 7 6 6 8 10 12 9 19 95 Libby Redmond '20 [1-4]
Trent Shaw '20 [5-10]
Isa Duplessis '20 [1-4]
Kenna Reed '20 [5-8]
Libby Redmond '20 [9-10]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 9 13 13 4 3 16 14 13 10 5 100 Bridget Green '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Tom Green '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Christian Pagan '22 [3-4]
Tom Green '19 [5-8]
Bridget Green '21 [9-10]
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 15 14 15 14 10 9 9 5 6 8 105 Molly Matthews '19 [1-10]
Meghan Dieball '20 [1-2, 5-8]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 17 7 10 8 14 10 18 3 12 7 106 Joseph Wicker '20 [1-10]
Drew Dillon '19 [1-4]
Olin Guck '22 [5-6, 9-10]
Josh Dillon '21 [7-8]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 14 4 12 10 9 12 15 11 16 14 117 Eric O'Connor '19
Ryan Hamilton '19
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 20 18 17 16 12 4 4 14 13 4 122 Emily Alfortish '21 [1-8, 10]
Thomas Kerrigan '22 [9]
Nicholas Combe '19 [1-4]
Thomas Kerrigan '22 [5-8, 10]
Emily Alfortish '21 [9]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 7 10 11 7 13 15 11 17 20 16 127 Chris Robertson '19 [1-8]
Harrison Thomson '22 [9-10]
Sam Beck '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Matt Wright '19 [5-8]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 2 17 9 13 DNF 14 13 15 14 11 129 Chase Reynolds '19 [1-10]
Will Donovan '21 [1-4]
Garrett Cutler '19 [5-10]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 13 15 16 18 15 18 12 18 11 12 148 Eva Ermlich '22 [1-8]
Gavin Sanborn '21 [9-10]
Jondall Norris '20 [1-8]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 11 11 14 15 17 19 19 16 15 17 154 Noah Barton '19 [1-8]
Nathan Whisner '19 [9-10]
Anna Mcbride '20 [1-8]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 16 16 DNF 19 18 13 16 10 18 10 157 Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 4-10]
Samantha Bialek '20 [3]
Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Cady Clark '20 [3]
Samantha Bialek '20 [4]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 19 19 DNF 17 16 17 17 20 19 20 185 William Frendreiss '19 [1-10]
Christopher Connally '20 [1-4]
Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 [5-10]
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Panthers -Varsity 18 20 18 20 19 20 20 19 17 18 189 Lucia Bishop '21
Carson Oakley '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles20201919181817171616
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses19192020112233
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles18181717161615151414
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits171718181919202011
Good Hope County Day SchoolGood Hope County Day School Panthers -Varsity16161515141413131212
Grosse IIe High SchoolGrosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet15151616171718181919
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders14141313121211111010
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies13131414151516161717
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity1212111110109988
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons11111212131314141515
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers101099887766
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian991010111112121313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks8877665544
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs77889910101111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers6655443322
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders5566778899
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1122334455
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals443322112020
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams3344556677
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints2211202019191818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles20201919181817171616
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses19192020112233
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles18181717161615151414
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits171718181919202011
Good Hope County Day SchoolGood Hope County Day School Panthers -Varsity16161515141413131212
Grosse IIe High SchoolGrosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet15151616171718181919
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders14141313121211111010
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies13131414151516161717
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity1212111110109988
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons11111212131314141515
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers101099887766
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian991010111112121313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks8877665544
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs77889910101111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers6655443322
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders5566778899
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1122334455
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals443322112020
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams3344556677
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints2211202019191818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barrington High School Barrington High School Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-10] Kaleigh Morgan '19 [1-4]
Drew Dillon '19 [5-10]
Eagles Joseph Wicker '20 [1-10] Drew Dillon '19 [1-4]
Olin Guck '22 [5-6, 9-10]
Josh Dillon '21 [7-8]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 [1-10] Jeff Elkin '20 [1-2, 4]
Carson Rozell '19 [3]
Reese Bragg '21 [5-10]
Seahorses Benton Amthor '19 [1-10] Duke Cowart '19 [1-2]
Nathan Smith '20 [3-10]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Beckett Kumler '20 Nathaniel Barret '19
Eagles Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 4-10]
Samantha Bialek '20 [3]		 Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Cady Clark '20 [3]
Samantha Bialek '20 [4]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jamie Paul '19 [1-4, 6-10]
Quinn Sheehan '19 [5]		 Garrett Cutler '19 [1-2]
John Sisk '19 [3-4]
Will Donovan '21 [5-10]
Jesuits Chase Reynolds '19 [1-10] Will Donovan '21 [1-4]
Garrett Cutler '19 [5-10]
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Mathieu Dale '21 Elyssa Franklin '22
Panthers -Varsity Lucia Bishop '21 Carson Oakley '22
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Ian Reimel '19 Maren Matthews '22
Grosse Ile - Scarlet Molly Matthews '19 [1-10] Meghan Dieball '20 [1-2, 5-8]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Daniel Hughes '21 [1-10] Teddy Bueres '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Roberto Lugones '20 [5-6]
Raiders Kyle Bramson '20 [1-10] Chris Purcell '21 [1-4]
Karen Liberman '20 [5-10]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-10] Joshua Keegan '20 [1-4]
Ellie Menszer '22 [5-10]
Greenies Emily Alfortish '21 [1-8, 10]
Thomas Kerrigan '22 [9]		 Nicholas Combe '19 [1-4]
Thomas Kerrigan '22 [5-8, 10]
Emily Alfortish '21 [9]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Luke Hosek '20 Lauren Mellinger '21
Varsity William Frendreiss '19 [1-10] Christopher Connally '20 [1-4]
Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 [5-10]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Grant Adam '19 Anna O'Connor '20
Fishwagons Eric O'Connor '19 Ryan Hamilton '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nate Olmsted '19 [1-4]
Graham Ness '19 [5-10]		 Lucia Loosbrock '21 [1-4]
Annika Irene '19 [5-10]
Skippers Matthew Kickhafer '19 [1-10] Audrey Cote '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Graham Ness '19 [3-4]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Quinn Keenan '19 [1-10] Zach Nagel '19 [1-2]
Nathan Whisner '19 [3-5]
Izzy Cox '19 [6-10]
Trevian Noah Barton '19 [1-8]
Nathan Whisner '19 [9-10]		 Anna Mcbride '20 [1-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks Chris Robertson '19 [1-8]
Harrison Thomson '22 [9-10]		 Sam Beck '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Matt Wright '19 [5-8]
Portland High School Portland High School Hal Clews '19 Lucy Kilbreth '20
Bulldogs Eva Ermlich '22 [1-8]
Gavin Sanborn '21 [9-10]		 Jondall Norris '20 [1-8]
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Panthers Cameron Giblin '19 [1-10] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-4]
Will Beyer '20 [5-10]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Lachlain Mc Granaham '20 [1-10] Adam Kaplan '21 [1-4]
Hannah Bast '21 [5-10]
Raiders Julia Johansson '19 [1-10] Bernat Miro '19 [1-4]
Claire Holzman '21 [5-10]
Severn School Severn School Jordan Bruce '20 [1-10] Marcus Adam '19 [1-4]
Addi Harris '20 [5-10]
Admirals Owen Hennessey '21 [1-7, 9-10]
Caroline Bayless '19 [8]		 Caroline Bayless '19 [1-4]
Andrea Riefkohl '20 [5-7, 9-10]
Abby Tindall '19 [8]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-10] Tom Green '19 [1-4]
Nate Ertle '20 [5-10]
Rams Bridget Green '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Tom Green '19 [3-4, 9-10]		 Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Christian Pagan '22 [3-4]
Tom Green '19 [5-8]
Bridget Green '21 [9-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) James Golden '20 Amelia Johnson '21
Saints Trevor Davis '20 [1-10] William Cornell '19 [1-4]
Jessica Groblewski '21 [5-10]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Joey Meagher '20 [1-10] Trent Shaw '20 [1-4]
Emma Asturias '20 [5-8]
Kenna Reed '20 [9-10]
Raiders Libby Redmond '20 [1-4]
Trent Shaw '20 [5-10]		 Isa Duplessis '20 [1-4]
Kenna Reed '20 [5-8]
Libby Redmond '20 [9-10]

Conditions — 11/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 43°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.5 kn
avg  ·  max 14.9 kn
Gusts to 34.2 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 20 kn · SE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at US Naval Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.21)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.22 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.21 means a rating gap counts about 19% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at US Naval Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at US Naval Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →