DC Sail Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 35 29 64
2 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Varsity 29 38 67
3 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 49 25 74
4 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 41 35 76
5 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 27 53 80
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 50 46 96
7 Gunston Gunston Herons 42 69 111
8 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 81 47 128
9 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 67 63 130
10 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 75 90 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 1 3 3 1 2 4 1 8 4 27 Colman Schofield '21
Matthew Boothby '21
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Varsity 4 1 8 2 1 7 4 1 1 29 Peter Lobaugh '20
Peter Moser '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 9 1 4 4 2 2 2 8 35 Daniel Unangst '20
Julia Marino '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 6 6 6 5 1 5 4 2 41 Olivia Sowa '20
Nico Funya '18
Gunston Gunston Herons 5 2 2 3 3 3 8 7 9 42 Mark Bourdin '20 [1-9]
Maccallum Borghardt '20 [1-5, 7-9]
Marion Riddle '21 [6]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 8 5 5 7 6 3 3 5 49 Karl Wagerson '18 [1-9]
Isaac Wilks '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Huebner '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 5 4 7 6 9 6 5 6 50 Caroline James '20 [1-9]
Ally Shearon '18 [1-6]
Sarah Rosa '20 [7-9]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 8 7 7 9 9 8 7 9 3 67 Jackson Barlow '20
Ethan Schwartz '20
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 9 4 9 8 8 10 10 10 7 75 Ari Wasch '21
Belle Albert '19
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 10 10 10 DNS 10 5 9 6 10 81 Lucien Parker '20
Jaclyn Kopernick '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3 1 2 1 9 5 2 1 1 25 Friso G '21
Matt Green '18
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 2 3 5 4 3 1 2 5 29 Tyler Egeli '20 [1-9]
Ryan Lacey '18 [1-4]
Lauren Miller '18 [5-9]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 3 1 2 3 6 5 3 3 35 Lucy Paskoff '20
Hannah Carlsen '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Varsity 1 9 8 4 1 2 3 8 2 38 Frank Lucchetti '18
Hannah Leggett '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 5 7 3 6 1 8 7 4 46 Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-9]
Mary Nolan '21 [1-6]
Abby Bridges '20 [7-9]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 6 4 7 2 7 7 5 7 47 Alex Heim '20
Evan Mccarthy '18
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 6 8 6 6 7 4 4 4 8 53 Henry Myrick '20
Emma Oosterveld '19
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 7 7 9 9 5 8 6 6 6 63 Henry Haddon '20
Sophie B '20
Gunston Gunston Herons 8 4 5 8 8 9 9 9 9 69 Sam Angelini '20 [1-5, 7-9]
Phillip Ashley '19 [6]
Cora Duncan '19 [1-5, 7-9]
Helen Boone '21 [6]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 90 Hunter Ward '20
Vaughan Hood '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.220+0.22
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron113355779
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Varsity2244668810
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins335577991
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668810102
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66881010224
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres779911335
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks88101022446
GunstonGunston Herons557799113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity991133557
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots10102244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244668810
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Varsity335577991
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668810102
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets557799113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders779911335
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres88101022446
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks991133557
GunstonGunston Herons66881010224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity10102244668
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots113355779

Conditions — 10/15/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →