MASSA Fall 2022 Team Race Championship

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date10/22/2022
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Severn School	Admirals	21–1
2	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	18–4
3	Christchurch School	Seahorses	15–7
4	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	13–9
5	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	11–11
6	The Stony Brook School	Bears	12–10
7	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	8–14
8	Grafton High School	Clippers	6–16
9	Great Mills High School	Hornets	3–19
10	Broadneck High School	Bruins	3–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,103 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 93 of 110 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.348 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	1	10.28 school −0.10	Thomas Sitzmann / Scarlett Harris 3.97 Kyle Reinecke / Helena English 2.87 Robby Meek / Lilly Baker 3.51	94%	21–1 (95%)	+0.3
2	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	2	8.07 school +0.24	Rebecca Schill / Marin Soderberg 2.23 Henry Allgeier / Emily Britt 2.99 14–4 Sean Trudell / Jack Poynter 2.57 14–4 Henry Allgeier / Rachael Buchanan 3.06 4–0 Sean Trudell / Sabrina Casagrande 2.65 4–0	71%	18–4 (82%)	+2.3
3	Christchurch School Seahorses	4	7.57 school +0.25	Madeline Janzen / John "Peyton" Mcdonald 2.61 Maison Koepke / Simone Moss 2.31 11–4 Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda / Paul Rodrigues Jr 2.45 8–3 Bo Angus / Simone Moss 4–3 Jordan Viera / Cameron Kinnear 2.28 5–1 Maison Koepke / Paul Rodrigues Jr 2.24 2–3	66%	15–7 (68%)	+0.5
4	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	7.73 school +0.09	Hugh Carty / Christina Pierce 2.78 Owen Macwilliams / Madeline Washburn 2.57 Parker Herman / Taylor Collison 2.25	67%	13–9 (59%)	−1.8
5	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	6	5.90 school −0.41	Parker Moore / Nicholas Bielewicz 2.57 7–10 Pierce Brindley / Gianna Dewey 1.89 7–10 Leila Pfrang / Ryan Foretich 1.85 7–10 Parker Moore / Josie Brindley 2.50 4–1 Pierce Brindley / Stone Dewey 1.85 4–1 Leila Pfrang / Liam Ambrosino 1.84 4–1	42%	11–11 (50%)	+1.9
6	The Stony Brook School Bears	5	5.91 school −0.21	Gavin Hudson / Mairead Reitzel 2.73 Jeremy Lunati / Amy Li Mauro Gonzales / Sean Beaver	54%	12–10 (55%)	+0.2
7	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	7	4.58 school −0.10	Kiana Beachy / Clara Murphy 2.00 Maddie Murphy / Jackson Delanty 2.01 Alex Salzberg / Jessa Rousch 0.58 6–9 Alex Salzberg / Catlin Schoonen 0.59 2–5	34%	8–14 (36%)	+0.6
8	Grafton High School Clippers	9	3.88 school +0.11	Blake Goodwin / Helen Schmuck 2.02 Nick Fogt / Felix Susta 0.99 Grif Mahan / Ezekiel Hurst 0.67	24%	6–16 (27%)	+0.8
9	Great Mills High School Hornets	10	3.48 school −0.27	Jonathan Stevenson / Alex Prior 1.50 Ryan Brelage / Eliza Szymendera Eli Leopold / Gracie Muir 1.14	18%	3–19 (14%)	−1.0
10	Broadneck High School Bruins	8	4.40 school +0.25	Marco Welch / Madeline Fisher 1.72 Hayden Clary / Carter Telep 0.96 Justin Marquez / James O'Leary 1.34	31%	3–19 (14%)	−3.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Norfolk Academy	8.07	9.25	18–4	15.7	+1.18	1.5	14%
5	Hampton Roads Academy	5.90	6.64	11–11	9.1	+0.74	0.8	22%
1	Severn School	10.28	10.66	21–1	20.7	+0.38	0.1	62%
8	Grafton High School	3.88	4.21	6–16	5.2	+0.32	0.1	42%
7	Norfolk Collegiate School	4.58	4.79	8–14	7.4	+0.22	0.1	48%
3	Christchurch School	7.57	7.78	15–7	14.5	+0.21	0.1	51%
6	The Stony Brook School	5.91	5.98	12–10	11.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
9	Great Mills High School	3.48	2.97	3–19	4.0	−0.51	0.3	82%
4	Archbishop Spalding	7.73	7.00	13–9	14.8	−0.72	0.7	91%
10	Broadneck High School	4.40	2.71	3–19	6.8	−1.68	3.4	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda	Christchurch School	2.45	3.01	8–3	7.1	+0.56	0.3	41%
Alex Salzberg	Norfolk Collegiate School	0.58	0.80	8–14	7.4	+0.22	0.1	48%
Madeline Janzen	Christchurch School	2.61	2.82	15–7	14.5	+0.21	0.1	51%
Mauro Gonzales	The Stony Brook School	2.06	2.14	12–10	11.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
Jonathan Stevenson	Great Mills High School	1.50	0.99	3–19	4.0	−0.51	0.3	82%
Jordan Viera	Christchurch School	2.28	1.72	5–1	5.3	−0.56	0.1	85%
Parker Herman	Archbishop Spalding	2.25	1.52	13–9	14.8	−0.72	0.7	91%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Academy	Broadneck High School	95%
1	2	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	97%
1	3	Hampton Roads Academy	Grafton High School	82%
1	4	Archbishop Spalding	Norfolk Collegiate School	92%
1	5	Christchurch School	Broadneck High School	92%
1	6	The Stony Brook School	Great Mills High School	86%
1	7	Norfolk Academy	Grafton High School	96%
1	8	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	88%
1	9	Christchurch School	Hampton Roads Academy	80%
1	10	Norfolk Collegiate School	Great Mills High School	70%
1	11	Broadneck High School	Grafton High School	59%
1	12	Archbishop Spalding	The Stony Brook School	82%
1	13	Norfolk Academy	Christchurch School	57%
1	14	Severn School	Great Mills High School	100%
1	15	Hampton Roads Academy	Broadneck High School	77%
1	16	The Stony Brook School	Norfolk Collegiate School	73%
1	17	Christchurch School	Grafton High School	95%
1	18	Archbishop Spalding	Great Mills High School	97%
1	19	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	84%
1	20	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	99%
1	21	The Stony Brook School	Broadneck High School	76%
1	22	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	50%	upset
1	23	Grafton High School	Great Mills High School	58%
1	24	Norfolk Collegiate School	Hampton Roads Academy	26%	upset
1	25	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	85%
1	26	Archbishop Spalding	Broadneck High School	93%
1	27	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	78%
1	28	Hampton Roads Academy	Great Mills High School	87%
1	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Grafton High School	63%
1	30	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	56%
1	31	Severn School	Broadneck High School	99%
1	32	Christchurch School	Great Mills High School	95%
1	33	The Stony Brook School	Grafton High School	83%
1	34	Norfolk Academy	Norfolk Collegiate School	94%
1	35	Severn School	Hampton Roads Academy	97%
1	36	Great Mills High School	Broadneck High School	33%	upset
1	37	Archbishop Spalding	Grafton High School	95%
1	38	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	89%
1	39	Hampton Roads Academy	The Stony Brook School	50%
1	40	Norfolk Academy	Great Mills High School	98%
1	41	Severn School	Grafton High School	99%
1	42	Norfolk Collegiate School	Broadneck High School	54%
1	43	Hampton Roads Academy	Archbishop Spalding	19%	upset
1	44	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	85%
1	45	Severn School	Christchurch School	91%
2	46	Norfolk Academy	Broadneck High School	94%
2	47	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	97%
2	48	Hampton Roads Academy	Grafton High School	82%
2	49	Archbishop Spalding	Norfolk Collegiate School	92%
2	50	Christchurch School	Broadneck High School	92%
2	51	The Stony Brook School	Great Mills High School	87%
2	52	Norfolk Academy	Grafton High School	96%
2	53	Archbishop Spalding	Severn School	12%	upset
2	54	Christchurch School	Hampton Roads Academy	80%
2	55	Norfolk Collegiate School	Great Mills High School	70%
2	56	Grafton High School	Broadneck High School	40%	upset
2	57	Archbishop Spalding	The Stony Brook School	80%
2	58	Norfolk Academy	Christchurch School	56%
2	59	Severn School	Great Mills High School	100%
2	60	Hampton Roads Academy	Broadneck High School	76%
2	61	The Stony Brook School	Norfolk Collegiate School	74%
2	62	Christchurch School	Grafton High School	95%
2	63	Archbishop Spalding	Great Mills High School	96%
2	64	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	84%
2	65	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	99%
2	66	Broadneck High School	The Stony Brook School	23%	upset
2	67	Archbishop Spalding	Christchurch School	50%	upset
2	68	Great Mills High School	Grafton High School	42%	upset
2	69	Hampton Roads Academy	Norfolk Collegiate School	74%
2	70	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	85%
2	71	Archbishop Spalding	Broadneck High School	93%
2	72	The Stony Brook School	Christchurch School	23%	upset
2	73	Hampton Roads Academy	Great Mills High School	87%
2	74	Grafton High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	37%	upset
2	75	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	56%
2	76	Severn School	Broadneck High School	99%
2	77	Christchurch School	Great Mills High School	95%
2	78	The Stony Brook School	Grafton High School	83%
2	79	Norfolk Academy	Norfolk Collegiate School	94%
2	80	Severn School	Hampton Roads Academy	97%
2	81	Broadneck High School	Great Mills High School	67%
2	82	Archbishop Spalding	Grafton High School	95%
2	83	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	90%
2	84	Hampton Roads Academy	The Stony Brook School	49%	upset
2	85	Norfolk Academy	Great Mills High School	97%
2	86	Severn School	Grafton High School	99%
2	87	Norfolk Collegiate School	Broadneck High School	53%
2	88	Hampton Roads Academy	Archbishop Spalding	19%	upset
2	89	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	85%
2	90	Severn School	Christchurch School	91%
2	91	The Stony Brook School	Grafton High School	83%
2	92	Norfolk Collegiate School	Broadneck High School	53%
2	93	Severn School	Christchurch School	91%
2	94	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	56%
2	95	The Stony Brook School	Great Mills High School	87%
2	96	Grafton High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	37%	upset
2	97	Severn School	Hampton Roads Academy	97%
2	98	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	45%	upset
2	99	The Stony Brook School	Broadneck High School	77%
2	100	Grafton High School	Great Mills High School	58%
2	101	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	88%
2	102	Christchurch School	Hampton Roads Academy	81%
2	103	The Stony Brook School	Norfolk Collegiate School	75%
2	104	Great Mills High School	Broadneck High School	32%	upset
2	105	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	85%
2	106	Archbishop Spalding	Hampton Roads Academy	81%
2	107	Grafton High School	Broadneck High School	40%	upset
2	108	Norfolk Collegiate School	Great Mills High School	70%
2	109	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	51%
2	110	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	84%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
2	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
3	Navigators	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
4	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
5	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hornets	3-4-6
7	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
8	Admirals	1-3-6	def.	Cavaliers	2-4-5
9	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
10	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
11	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Clippers	3-4-5
12	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
14	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
15	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
16	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
17	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
18	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
20	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
22	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
23	Clippers	1-3-5	def.	Hornets	2-4-6
24	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
25	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
26	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
27	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
28	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Hornets	3-5-6
29	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Clippers	3-4-5
30	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-3-6
31	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
32	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
33	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Clippers	3-4-5
34	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
35	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
36	Hornets	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
37	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
38	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
39	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
40	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
41	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
42	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
43	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
45	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
47	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
48	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
49	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
50	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
52	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
53	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
54	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
55	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
56	Clippers	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
57	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
59	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
60	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
61	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Oaks	2-3-6
62	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
63	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Hornets	3-5-6
64	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
65	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
66	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
67	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
68	Hornets	1-4-5	def.	Clippers	2-3-6
69	Navigators	2-3-5	def.	Oaks	1-4-6
70	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
71	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
72	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
73	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
74	Clippers	1-3-5	def.	Oaks	2-4-6
75	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
76	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
77	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
78	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6 DNS
80	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
81	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Hornets	1-5-6
82	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
83	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
84	Navigators	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
85	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
86	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
87	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
88	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
89	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
90	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
91	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
92	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
93	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
94	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
95	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
96	Clippers	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
97	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
98	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
99	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
100	Clippers	1-2-5	def.	Hornets	3-4-6
101	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
102	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
103	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
104	Hornets	1-3-4	def.	Bruins	2-5-6
105	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
106	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
107	Clippers	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
108	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Hornets	3-4-6
109	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-3-6
110	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Severn School	Admirals	Kyle Reinecke '23 Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23	Helena English '24 Lilly Baker '23 Scarlett Harris '24
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Henry Allgeier '23 Rebecca Schill '23 Sean Trudell '24	Emily Britt '23 Rachael Buchanan '24 Marin Soderberg '24 Jack Poynter '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Bo Angus '25 Jordan Viera '24 Madeline Janzen '25 Maison Koepke '23 Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda '25	Simone Moss '25 Cameron Kinnear '24 John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 Paul Rodrigues Jr '24
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Hugh Carty '23 Owen Macwilliams '24 Parker Herman '24	Christina Pierce '25 Madeline Washburn '23 Taylor Collison '24
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24	Ryan Foretich '25 Liam Ambrosino '23 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Josie Brindley '26 Gianna Dewey '23 Stone Dewey '26
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Gavin Hudson '24 Jeremy Lunati '23 Mauro Gonzales '24	Mairead Reitzel '24 Amy Li '23 Sean Beaver '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Alex Salzberg '25 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25	Jessa Rousch '27 Catlin Schoonen '24 Clara Murphy '23 Jackson Delanty '23
Grafton High School	Clippers	Blake Goodwin '23 Grif Mahan '25 Nick Fogt '23	Helen Schmuck '23 Ezekiel Hurst '25 Felix Susta '27
Great Mills High School	Hornets	Eli Leopold '24 Jonathan Stevenson '23 Ryan Brelage '24	Gracie Muir '23 Alex Prior '24 Eliza Szymendera '25
Broadneck High School	Bruins	Hayden Clary '24 Justin Marquez '24 Marco Welch '24	Carter Telep '24 James O'Leary '25 Madeline Fisher '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →