Grafton High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.36 (fleet 0.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–33 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 7–18 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 11–33 against 11.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.63 | -0.35 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.98 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2022-10-22 | MASSA Fall 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.67 | 1.00 | 6–16 | 5.2 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 42% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Weekday Team Race #1 | skipper | 0.60 | 0.54 | 1–2 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 0.57 | 0.74 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 59% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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