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VISA Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 22
2 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 24
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 32
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 52
5 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 59
6 York High School York High School Falcons 68
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 70
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 82
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks B 1 1 3 5 Maddie Murphy '25
Emma Horton '25
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators A 2 3 7 12 Parker Moore '25
Nicholas Bielewicz '26
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators B 3 4 5 12 Leila Pfrang '25
Daphne Ambrosino '27
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs A 4 2 8 14 Sean Trudell '24
Marin Soderberg '24
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks A 6 5 6 17 Kiana Beachy '24
Tucker Peltier '26
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs B 7 10 1 18 Hunter Wheary '24 [1-2]
James Allgeier '27 [3]
Jack Poynter '25 [1-2]
Grant Fernandez '27 [3]
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons A 11 7 2 20 Nicholas Davis '24
Thomas Bloys '24
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores A 12 6 4 22 Tucker Mcgrady '26
Gabby Cloe '24
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers B 5 8 11 24 Felix Susta '27
Nathan Shaw '27
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores B 9 9 12 30 Emily Priest '25
Charlotte Mccoy '24
York High School York High School Falcons A 8 13 13 34 Liam Burke '27
Dylan Thomas '28
York High School York High School Falcons B 13 11 10 34 Grayson Kelly '27
Tyler Compton '29
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders A 10 12 14 36 Cam Brewer '24
Jackson Raymond '27
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons B 14 16 9 39 Nathan Libby '26
Levi Stillman '25
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers A 15 14 RAF 46 Grif Mahan '25
Ezekiel Hurst '25
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders B 16 15 15 46 Hunter Walton '25
Cate Rutter '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers112
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators221
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores334
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs443
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks556
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders665
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons778
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons887

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers9910
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators10109
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores111112
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs121211
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks131314
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders141413
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons151516
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons161615

Conditions — 05/25/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1011.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Academy: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →