| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Grafton High School | Clippers | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,946 team race matches sailed before 2022-09-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.643 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 1 | 4.30 school −0.14 | Kiana Beachy / Clara Murphy 1.95 Maddie Murphy / Tucker Peltier 1.86 Alex Salzberg / Jessa Rousch | 66% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Grafton High School Clippers | 2 | 3.48 school +0.14 | Blake Goodwin / Helen Schmuck 1.85 Nick Fogt / Nathan Shaw 0.83 Grif Mahan / Ezekiel Hurst 0.60 | 34% | 1–2 (33%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 4.30 | 4.37 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Grafton High School | 3.48 | 3.42 | 1–2 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.60 | 0.67 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 73% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grafton High School | Norfolk Collegiate School | 34% | upset |
| 2 | 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Grafton High School | 65% | |
| 3 | 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School | Grafton High School | 65% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Clippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Oaks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Alex Salzberg '25 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Jessa Rousch '23 Clara Murphy '23 Tucker Peltier '26 |
|
Grafton High School | Clippers | Blake Goodwin '23 Grif Mahan '25 Nick Fogt '23 |
Helen Schmuck '23 Ezekiel Hurst '25 Nathan Shaw '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
