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VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 15 7 22
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 14 18 32
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 13 21 34
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 23 24 47
5 Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers 25 27 52
6 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 13 41 54
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 35 22 57
8 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 34 27 61
9 York High School York High School Falcons 36 32 68
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 46 24 70
11 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 30 46 76
12 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 40 37 77
13 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 50 46 96
14 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 52 50 102
15 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 54 60 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 1 3 8 13 Sarah Moore '29 [1-4]
Madeline Monteith '29 [1-2]
Jack Duggan '28 [3-4]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 5 4 1 13 Tom Seibold '26
Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 4 1 5 14 Gp Keating '27
Emma Ho '25
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 2 7 2 4 15 Tucker Mcgrady '26
Madeline Ballard '25
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 5 6 9 3 23 Lillian Rippel '25
Annika Fox '27
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers 6 8 5 6 25 Sophia Lopez '30
Rozlyn Theriault '29
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 7 15 6 2 30 Nathan Libby '26
Aniyah Lang '28
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 8 3 10 13 34 Kieran Mason '26
Brooklynn Maranto '28
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 10 9 7 9 35 Grif Mahan '25
Mollie Beth Andrews '25
York High School York High School Falcons 9 2 14 11 36 Liam Burke '27
Savannah Vancleave '25
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 14 11 8 7 40 Graham Stevens '28
Evangelia Bredologos '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 11 14 11 10 46 Duncan Hardy '27
Minh Tho Nguyen '26
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 13 12 13 12 50 Elizabeth Jensen '25
Olivia Jensen '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 15 10 12 15 52 Hunter Walton '25 [1-4]
Jackson Raymond '27 [1-2]
Caiden Williams '29 [3-4]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 12 13 15 14 54 Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [1-2]
Hunter Heckman '26 [3-4]
Hunter Heckman '26 [1-2]
Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 1 1 1 4 7 Emily Priest '25 [1-4]
Colin Moorhouse '27 [1-2]
Lenox Wakefield '27 [3-4]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 2 10 3 18 Jackson Mcgrady '26
Carly Moss '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 DSQ 2 1 21 Wyatt Lipp '28
Cindy Zhang '28
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 4 4 12 2 22 Nathan Shaw '27
Ezekiel Hurst '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 9 3 6 6 24 Pierson Teer '27
Charlie Bernier '28
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 11 5 3 5 24 Samuel Rogge '28 [1-4]
Rylie Bowen '27 [1-2]
Genevieve Collett '25 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 6 7 5 9 27 Caleb Kyle '25 [1-4]
Tyler Slemp '25 [1-2]
Lillian Melzer '30 [3-4]
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers 8 8 4 7 27 Raquel Theriault '26
Katherine Michael '26
York High School York High School Falcons 5 6 13 8 32 Dylan Thomas '28
Tyler Compton '28
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 7 13 7 10 37 Henry Van Orman '30
Willow Wheeler '27
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 10 9 8 14 41 Chase Young '28 [1-4]
Ryan Stokes '28 [1-2]
Piper Cartwright '27 [3-4]
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 12 12 9 13 46 Levi Stillman '25
Aline Hughes '30
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 14 10 11 11 46 Thatcher Elliott '27
Sydney Gray '28
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 13 11 14 12 50 Brett Clemmey '27 [1-4]
Meadow Page '26 [1-2]
Aiden Westcott '25 [3-4]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 15 14 15 DNF 60 Brandon Skaredoff '27
Matthew Woodard '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders1133
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 12244
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 23355
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 34466
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons5577
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers6688
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators7799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 1991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 210101212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks11111313
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders12121414
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers13131515
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons141411
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons151522

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders2244
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 13355
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 24466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 35577
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons6688
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers7799
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators881010
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 110101212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 211111313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks12121414
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders13131515
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers141411
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons151522
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic High School Catholic High School Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [1-2]
Hunter Heckman '26 [3-4]		 Hunter Heckman '26 [1-2]
Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [3-4]
Crusaders Brandon Skaredoff '27 Matthew Woodard '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Tom Seibold '26 Cherry Phan '25
Seahorses 1 Wyatt Lipp '28 Cindy Zhang '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Gp Keating '27 Emma Ho '25
Seahorses 2 Jackson Mcgrady '26 Carly Moss '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Duncan Hardy '27 Minh Tho Nguyen '26
Seahorses 3 Pierson Teer '27 Charlie Bernier '28
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Elizabeth Jensen '25 Olivia Jensen '27
Falcons Thatcher Elliott '27 Sydney Gray '28
Grafton High School Grafton High School Grif Mahan '25 Mollie Beth Andrews '25
Clippers Nathan Shaw '27 Ezekiel Hurst '25
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Sarah Moore '29 [1-4] Madeline Monteith '29 [1-2]
Jack Duggan '28 [3-4]
Navigators Chase Young '28 [1-4] Ryan Stokes '28 [1-2]
Piper Cartwright '27 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Kieran Mason '26 Brooklynn Maranto '28
Warriors Caleb Kyle '25 [1-4] Tyler Slemp '25 [1-2]
Lillian Melzer '30 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Tucker Mcgrady '26 Madeline Ballard '25
Commodores 1 Emily Priest '25 [1-4] Colin Moorhouse '27 [1-2]
Lenox Wakefield '27 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Lillian Rippel '25 Annika Fox '27
Commodores 2 Samuel Rogge '28 [1-4] Rylie Bowen '27 [1-2]
Genevieve Collett '25 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Graham Stevens '28 Evangelia Bredologos '27
Oaks Henry Van Orman '30 Willow Wheeler '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Hunter Walton '25 [1-4] Jackson Raymond '27 [1-2]
Caiden Williams '29 [3-4]
Islanders Brett Clemmey '27 [1-4] Meadow Page '26 [1-2]
Aiden Westcott '25 [3-4]
Tabb High School Tabb High School Sophia Lopez '30 Rozlyn Theriault '29
Tigers Raquel Theriault '26 Katherine Michael '26
The Hague School The Hague School Nathan Libby '26 Aniyah Lang '28
Tritons Levi Stillman '25 Aline Hughes '30
York High School York High School Liam Burke '27 Savannah Vancleave '25
Falcons Dylan Thomas '28 Tyler Compton '28

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From WSW (236°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1017.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Poquoson: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.27 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Poquoson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Poquoson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →