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MDISA Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 33 20 53
2 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 32 63 95
3 Key School Key School Zags 30 66 96
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 56 52 108
5 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 56 65 121
6 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 63 64 127
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 94 38 132
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 85 69 154
9 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 77 78 155
10 Gunston Gunston Herons 100 97 197
11 Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 103 121 224
12 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 109 124 233
13 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 114 132 246
14 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 130 118 248
15 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 143 115 258
16 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 131 144 275
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Key School Key School Zags 3 4 2 4 2 1 6 1 3 4 30 Mason Cook '25
Paige Asbill '31
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 1 1 2 1 10 2 8 5 1 32 Owen Macwilliams '24
Christina Pierce '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 3 3 1 3 4 1 12 1 3 33 Ava Cornell '24 [1-4, 10]
Harrison Szot '27 [5-9]
Scarlett Harris '24 [1-4, 10]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 5 8 3 5 8 3 5 6 9 56 Joseph Murphy '24
Will Clay '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 4 7 6 6 4 3 2 13 56 Hayden Clary '24 [1-2, 6-10]
Chris White '24 [3-5]
Justin Marquez '24 [1-2, 6-10]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 9 2 9 6 10 3 7 4 RDG 7 63 Scott Opert '24
Molly Dowling '25
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 7 6 5 15 DSQ 9 2 7 2 77 Halsey Carter '26
Aurelea Cerny '30
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 11 9 5 9 9 7 5 7 9 14 85 Claire Sullivan '25
Eliza Szymendera '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 13 DSQ 7 13 8 2 8 10 4 12 94 Peter Judge '25 [1-10]
Alexandria Still '27 [1-5]
Madison Cannon '25 [6-10]
Gunston Gunston Herons 6 8 13 8 11 9 11 11 15 8 100 Tommy Mcgeady '25
Justin Mccubbin '25
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 10 14 11 12 4 15 13 6 8 10 103 William Lindsley '24
Caitlin Costello '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 8 11 12 14 7 12 12 15 13 5 109 Hartley Cooper '26
Riley Schnable '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 14 10 10 11 12 13 15 9 14 6 114 James Biles V '27
Teagan Leigh '28
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 15 12 16 16 16 5 14 14 11 11 130 Clara Neeland '26
Annika Fisher '25
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 12 13 15 15 14 14 10 13 10 15 131 Rylee Landry '27
Gemma Love '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 16 15 14 10 13 11 16 16 16 16 143 Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-10]
Deniz Ayhan '24 [1-2, 5, 8-10]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4, 6-7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 2 1 8 1 1 2 2 20 Annie Sitzmann '26 [1-5]
Alex Baker '26 [6-10]
Helena English '24 [1-5]
Reese Corckran '24 [6-10]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 2 3 2 10 2 2 3 5 6 3 38 Gavin Morris '25
Henry Carlson '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 7 2 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 52 Marco Welch '24
James O'Leary '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 15 10 9 9 7 1 8 2 1 1 63 Charles Geraghty '26 [1-5]
Parker Herman '24 [6-10]
Taylor Collison '24 [1-5]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 6 6 10 1 4 7 5 10 7 8 64 Sophie Griggs '24
Maggie Dowling '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 4 8 4 8 10 2 4 11 9 65 James Lilyquist '24 [1-10]
Jared Werner '25 [1-5]
Giovanni Grandi '25 [6-10]
Key School Key School Zags 3 5 7 3 11 5 9 8 8 7 66 James Rizek '23 [1-7]
Trey Burman '25 [8-10]
Annabelle Ulak '26 [1-7]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 11 13 5 6 6 9 7 3 4 5 69 Ryan Brelage '24 [1-7]
Beatrice De Santo '24 [8-10]
Alex Prior '24 [1-7]
Eli Leopold '24 [8-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 9 3 8 3 11 10 7 13 10 78 Charlotte Hugo '26 [1-10]
Finn Erickson '29 [1-5]
James Chapman '27 [6-10]
Gunston Gunston Herons 12 8 13 7 12 4 16 9 10 6 97 Matthew Periconi '24
Caeden Harrison '24
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 9 11 4 13 9 13 11 16 16 13 115 Shane Churilla '25 [1-10]
Grace Shields '25 [1-7]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [8-10]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 10 7 11 12 10 14 14 15 14 11 118 Fiona O'Rourke '28
Lily Moss '25
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 3 4 14 3 12 121 No Show [1-5]
Luke Petry '27 [6-10]
No Show [1-5]
Leif Carney '25 [6-10]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 13 12 12 11 13 12 15 13 9 14 124 Cristian Botsis '25 [1-4]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [5-10]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-4]
Victor Kleppinger '25 [5-10]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 8 14 14 14 14 15 12 12 12 DSQ 132 Zachary Wells '25
Adalyn Biles '27
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 14 15 15 15 15 16 13 11 15 15 144 Ellie Katz '27
Adam Okedeyi '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1133555779
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446668810
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557779911
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4466888101012
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers6688101010121214
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers7799111111131315
Key SchoolKey School Zags881010121212141416
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders99111113131315151
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres151511333557
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1010121214141416162
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons11111313151515113
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks12121414161616224
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs13131515111335
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints14141616222446
GunstonGunston Herons5577999111113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings161622444668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2244466888
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers3355577999
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4466688101010
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets5577799111111
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers779991111131313
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers881010101212141414
Key SchoolKey School Zags991111111313151515
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders10101212121414161616
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres161622244666
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals11111313131515111
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons12121414141616222
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks131315151511333
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs141416161622444
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints151511133555
GunstonGunston Herons668881010121212
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1133355777
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Rylee Landry '27 Gemma Love '25
Panthers Ellie Katz '27 Adam Okedeyi '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Owen Macwilliams '24 Christina Pierce '25
Cavaliers Charles Geraghty '26 [1-5]
Parker Herman '24 [6-10]		 Taylor Collison '24 [1-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Hayden Clary '24 [1-2, 6-10]
Chris White '24 [3-5]		 Justin Marquez '24 [1-2, 6-10]
Bruins Marco Welch '24 James O'Leary '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Claire Sullivan '25 Eliza Szymendera '25
Hornets Ryan Brelage '24 [1-7]
Beatrice De Santo '24 [8-10]		 Alex Prior '24 [1-7]
Eli Leopold '24 [8-10]
Gunston Gunston Tommy Mcgeady '25 Justin Mccubbin '25
Herons Matthew Periconi '24 Caeden Harrison '24
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School William Lindsley '24 Caitlin Costello '24
Tigers No Show [1-5]
Luke Petry '27 [6-10]		 No Show [1-5]
Leif Carney '25 [6-10]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School James Biles V '27 Teagan Leigh '28
Buccaneers Zachary Wells '25 Adalyn Biles '27
Key School Key School Mason Cook '25 Paige Asbill '31
Zags James Rizek '23 [1-7]
Trey Burman '25 [8-10]		 Annabelle Ulak '26 [1-7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Joseph Murphy '24 Will Clay '25
Raiders James Lilyquist '24 [1-10] Jared Werner '25 [1-5]
Giovanni Grandi '25 [6-10]
Severn School Severn School Ava Cornell '24 [1-4, 10]
Harrison Szot '27 [5-9]		 Scarlett Harris '24 [1-4, 10]
Admirals Annie Sitzmann '26 [1-5]
Alex Baker '26 [6-10]		 Helena English '24 [1-5]
Reese Corckran '24 [6-10]
Severna Park Severna Park Peter Judge '25 [1-10] Alexandria Still '27 [1-5]
Madison Cannon '25 [6-10]
Falcons Gavin Morris '25 Henry Carlson '25
South River High School South River High School Clara Neeland '26 Annika Fisher '25
Seahawks Fiona O'Rourke '28 Lily Moss '25
Southern High School Southern High School Scott Opert '24 Molly Dowling '25
Bulldogs Sophie Griggs '24 Maggie Dowling '27
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Halsey Carter '26 Aurelea Cerny '30
Saints Charlotte Hugo '26 [1-10] Finn Erickson '29 [1-5]
James Chapman '27 [6-10]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 Riley Schnable '25
Sabres Cristian Botsis '25 [1-4]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [5-10]		 Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-4]
Victor Kleppinger '25 [5-10]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-10] Deniz Ayhan '24 [1-2, 5, 8-10]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4, 6-7]
Vikings Shane Churilla '25 [1-10] Grace Shields '25 [1-7]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [8-10]

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From NW (306°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1014.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 4 kn · NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.00 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →