| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 11–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 9–2 |
| 3 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 6–5 |
| 4 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Gilman School | Greyhounds | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Key School | Zags | 1–7 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,305 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 43 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.337 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 10.22 | 13.22 | 11–0 | 10.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 70% |
| 4 | Great Mills High School | 3.66 | 5.01 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.35 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 3 | Broadneck High School | 4.46 | 5.64 | 6–5 | 4.6 | +1.18 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding | 7.85 | 8.20 | 9–2 | 8.8 | +0.35 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 1.55 | 1.89 | 1–7 | 0.8 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 9 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 4.13 | 3.65 | 3–5 | 3.5 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 6 | Gilman School | 4.14 | 3.44 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 5 | Leonardtown High School | 5.00 | 3.98 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −1.03 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 7 | Key School | 3.08 | 1.43 | 1–7 | 2.2 | −1.65 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.65 | 3.00 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.35 | 1.3 | 16% |
| Chris White | Broadneck High School | 1.48 | 2.66 | 6–5 | 4.6 | +1.18 | 0.9 | 25% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.19 | 2.54 | 9–2 | 8.8 | +0.35 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Johnny Riganati | Severna Park | 0.72 | 1.06 | 1–7 | 0.8 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 58% |
| William Donald | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.73 | 1.24 | 3–5 | 3.5 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.99 | 1.51 | 3–5 | 3.5 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Charlotte Hugo | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.83 | 0.35 | 3–5 | 3.5 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Liam Rivers | Gilman School | 0.81 | 0.11 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Thor Cohen | Gilman School | 0.33 | -0.37 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Kyle Engel | Leonardtown High School | 1.69 | 0.66 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −1.03 | 0.7 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Greyhounds | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Greyhounds | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 30 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Greyhounds | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
