Great Mills High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 (fleet 1.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) as crew 5–6 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 5–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 7–14 against 6.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 1.42 | 0.83 | 2–8 | 2.8 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2023-04-01 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 1.06 | 2.41 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.35 | 1.3 | 16% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Adam Nilsson |  North Carolina State University |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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