MDISA Tier 2 at SCC

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 7 4 11
2 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 7 15 22
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 17 12 29
4 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 16 14 30
5 Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 23 25 48
6 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 24 24 48
7 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 27 25 52
8 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 31 31 62
9 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 36 36 72
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 37 37 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 4 1 1 7 Chris Mccollum '24
Kate Castleberry '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 1 2 2 7 Hartley Cooper '26
Louisa Kalinski '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 2 7 4 16 Ryan Brelage '24
Mac Fitzgerald '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 5 3 3 17 James Lilyquist '24
Steven Lumpkins '23
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 4 3 DSQ 5 23 Jack Sieg '24
Erez Engler '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 6 4 7 24 Matthew Hayden '23
Jacob Spence '24
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 5 9 6 BKD 27 Phoebe Milhollin '24
Ricardo Shayer '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 10 10 5 6 31 Caden Latchaw '23
Audrey Valentino '24
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 9 8 DNF BKD 36 Sophia Carney '24
Jonathan Piercey '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 8 7 DNS DNS 37 Clara Wilson '25
Caroline Fuller '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Sam De Los Reyes '26
Reese Corckran '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 2 2 6 12 Will Clay '25
Jared Werner '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 4 3 4 14 Adam Nilsson '25
Owen Delwiche '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 3 6 2 15 Armand Otmishi '24
Victor Kleppinger '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 5 6 5 8 24 Katie Howard '23
Sabrina Vignola '23
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 7 7 4 7 25 Eli Cummins '27
Graeme Finley '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 8 5 9 3 25 Brendan Finn Van Riper '24 [1-4]
Luke Johnson '25 [1-2]
Marco Pilotto '25 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 10 8 8 5 31 Lucia Zaklin '27 [1-2]
Zachary Wells '25 [3-4]
Alexander Read '22 [1-2]
Matthew Burggraff '22 [3-4]
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 9 BKD 7 DNS 36 James Johnson '22 [1-4]
Sadie Haas '25 [1-2]
Bruce Mcintyre '28 [3-4]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 BKD DNS DNS 37 Sophia Shiffer '23
Lillie Fuller '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights111133
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets121244
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers3355
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders4466
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers5577
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres881010
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals6688
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights7799
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity991111
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs10101212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights121244
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets3355
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers4466
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders5577
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers6688
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres991111
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals7799
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights881010
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity10101212
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs111133

Conditions — 05/07/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1003.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.7 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1003.5 hPa Rain0.27 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →