MDISA Silver SMR

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 11 8 19
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 14 7 21
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 15 17 32
4 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 12 32 44
5 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 28 21 49
6 Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 28 27 55
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 32 28 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 2 3 1 2 11 Justin Marquez '24
Hayden Clary '24
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 3 2 3 3 12 Jackson Park '22
Noah Wigglesworth '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 1 1 4 4 14 David Abbott '23
Timothy Berman '23
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 6 4 2 1 15 Eli Leopold '24
Ellis Thompson '23
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 5 5 6 7 5 28
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 4 7 5 6 28 Thomas Birchfield '26 [1-5]
Brody Marchlewicz '26 [1-2]
Teague Mann '25 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 7 5 6 7 32 William Western '23
Jacob Spence '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 2 1 1 1 7 Douglass Abbott '23
Will Grah '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 1 2 2 2 8 Carter Telep '24
Jack Lefever-Farino '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 3 4 4 3 17 Adam Nilsson '25
Owen Delwiche '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 5 3 5 4 21 Sophia Shiffer '23 [1-5]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '25 [1-2]
Brody Marchlewicz '26 [3-5]
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 6 6 6 3 6 27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 5 7 5 6 5 28 Katie Howard '23
Sabrina Vignola '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 7 4 7 7 7 32 William Fachet '23 [1-2]
Zachary Wells '25 [3-5]
Nathaniel Grimm '22 [1-2]
Henry Macmillan '26 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins11335
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets22446
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers33557
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders44661
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers55772
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs66113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights77224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins22444
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets33555
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers44666
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders55777
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers66111
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs77222
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights11333

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1015.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.47 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →