MDISA Tier 1 Fleet Race at SCC

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 5 4 9
2 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 14 15 29
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 15 28 43
4 Key School Key School Zags 23 22 45
5 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 26 20 46
6 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 30 35 65
7 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 28 39 67
8 Gunston Gunston Herons 51 18 69
9 Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 37 33 70
10 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 55 25 80
11 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 42 49 91
12 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 47 45 92
13 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 45 48 93
14 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 32 67 99
15 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 54 50 104
16 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 55 56 111
17 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 53 59 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 1 1 5 Alex Baker '26
Charlotte Macdonald '26
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 4 4 4 2 14 Peter Judge '25
Alexandria Still '27
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 1 2 5 15 Halsey Carter '26
Aurelea Cerny '30
Key School Key School Zags 2 3 3 15 23 Mason Cook '25 [1-3]
Trey Burman '25 [4]
Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Ben Coster '31 [4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 6 8 9 26 Adam Nilsson '25
Eliza Szymendera '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 8 12 5 3 28 James Biles V '27
Lucia Zaklin '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 5 7 13 30 Charles Geraghty '26 [1-3]
Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [4]
Christina Pierce '25 [1-3]
Emily Julian '28 [4]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 6 8 10 8 32 Conor Mastromarco '26
Wyatt Booth '25
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 11 13 6 7 37 Drew Defonzo '26
Maggie Defonzo '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 10 9 17 6 42 Will Clay '25
Mia Cassetta '25
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 15 7 11 12 45 Molly Dowling '25
Sarah Ramson '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 13 15 9 10 47 Clara Neeland '26 [1-3]
Hayden Medick '26 [4]
Annika Fisher '25 [1-3]
Lily Moss '25 [4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 12 10 15 14 51 Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-4]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [1-3]
Eli Moore '25 [4]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 17 16 16 4 53 Victor Schlecker '26
Abigayle Wyman '25
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 9 14 14 17 54 Rylee Landry '27 [1-3]
Ellie Katz '27 [4]
Catherine Kammeier '26 [1-3]
Rylee Landry '27 [4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 14 17 13 11 55 Hartley Cooper '26
Riley Schnable '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 16 11 12 16 55 Abigail Burritt '25 [1-3]
Erin Lawlor '26 [4]
James O'Leary '25 [1-3]
Felicia Gomoljak '26 [4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Harrison Szot '27
Ana Fishback '27
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 2 3 8 2 15 Gavin Morris '25
Connor Smith '25
Gunston Gunston Herons 3 6 2 7 18 Andrew Shingledecker '27
Alix Allison '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 8 5 3 20 Claire Sullivan '25
Maria Mercier '25
Key School Key School Zags 11 4 3 4 22 Casey Burman '28
Gideon Santana '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 2 6 12 25 Louisa Kalinski '25
Daniel Schwaninger '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 9 7 5 28 Logan Downey '25
Finn Erickson '29
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors DSQ 5 4 6 33 Peter Mazzagatti '26
Jeff Porter '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 8 7 11 9 35 Ann Martino '26
Maggie Mcinerney '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 10 9 11 39 Zachary Wells '25
Adalyn Biles '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 13 12 12 8 45 Fiona O'Rourke '28
Cameron Love '27
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 14 14 10 10 48 Nola Primeaux '25
Lucianno Russo '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 13 16 14 49 Jared Werner '25 [1, 3]
Sam Glauner '27 [2, 4]
Sam Glauner '27 [1, 3]
Jared Werner '25 [2, 4]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 10 11 13 16 50 Henry Meyer '25
Gemma Love '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 12 16 15 13 56 Skyler Krinetz '25
Ella Chasse '27
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 15 15 14 15 59 Nathaniel Wyman '28
Emerson Stehl '26
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 16 17 17 17 67 Magnolia Mckenna '26
Arabelle Gemmell '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1113
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2224
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3335
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4446
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles7779
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers88810
Key SchoolKey School Zags99911
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders10101012
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors6668
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1616161
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals11111113
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons12121214
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks13131315
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs14141416
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints15151517
GunstonGunston Herons5557
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1717172

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2222
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers3333
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4444
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets5555
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles8888
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers9999
Key SchoolKey School Zags10101010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders11111111
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors7777
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres17171717
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals12121212
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons13131313
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks14141414
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs15151515
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints16161616
GunstonGunston Herons6666
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Rylee Landry '27 [1-3]
Ellie Katz '27 [4]
Catherine Kammeier '26 [1-3]
Rylee Landry '27 [4]
Panthers Henry Meyer '25 Gemma Love '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Charles Geraghty '26 [1-3]
Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [4]
Christina Pierce '25 [1-3]
Emily Julian '28 [4]
Cavaliers Ann Martino '26 Maggie Mcinerney '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Abigail Burritt '25 [1-3]
Erin Lawlor '26 [4]
James O'Leary '25 [1-3]
Felicia Gomoljak '26 [4]
Bruins Skyler Krinetz '25 Ella Chasse '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Adam Nilsson '25 Eliza Szymendera '25
Hornets Claire Sullivan '25 Maria Mercier '25
Gunston Gunston Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-4] Justin Mccubbin '25 [1-3]
Eli Moore '25 [4]
Herons Andrew Shingledecker '27 Alix Allison '25
Henderson High School Henderson High School Drew Defonzo '26 Maggie Defonzo '26
Warriors Peter Mazzagatti '26 Jeff Porter '26
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Conor Mastromarco '26 Wyatt Booth '25
Eagles Magnolia Mckenna '26 Arabelle Gemmell '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School James Biles V '27 Lucia Zaklin '27
Buccaneers Zachary Wells '25 Adalyn Biles '27
Key School Key School Mason Cook '25 [1-3]
Trey Burman '25 [4]
Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Ben Coster '31 [4]
Zags Casey Burman '28 Gideon Santana '28
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Will Clay '25 Mia Cassetta '25
Raiders Jared Werner '25 [1, 3]
Sam Glauner '27 [2, 4]
Sam Glauner '27 [1, 3]
Jared Werner '25 [2, 4]
Severn School Severn School Alex Baker '26 Charlotte Macdonald '26
Admirals Harrison Szot '27 Ana Fishback '27
Severna Park Severna Park Peter Judge '25 Alexandria Still '27
Falcons Gavin Morris '25 Connor Smith '25
South River High School South River High School Clara Neeland '26 [1-3]
Hayden Medick '26 [4]
Annika Fisher '25 [1-3]
Lily Moss '25 [4]
Seahawks Fiona O'Rourke '28 Cameron Love '27
Southern High School Southern High School Molly Dowling '25 Sarah Ramson '27
Bulldogs Nola Primeaux '25 Lucianno Russo '27
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Halsey Carter '26 Aurelea Cerny '30
Saints Logan Downey '25 Finn Erickson '29
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 Riley Schnable '25
Sabres Louisa Kalinski '25 Daniel Schwaninger '26
The Tome School The Tome School Victor Schlecker '26 Abigayle Wyman '25
Titans Nathaniel Wyman '28 Emerson Stehl '26

Conditions — 10/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1018.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.40 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →