St. Mary's High School (MD) '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 (fleet 1.42) | 165 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–21 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 10–21 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 10–21 against 12.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.19 | 0.89 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 1.13 | 1.05 | 4–5 | 4.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 0.98 | -0.24 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.22 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Severn Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| MDISA SSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| MDISA SCC Tier 1 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 2.63 |
| MDISA Fleet Race Qualifier | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.3 | 1.80 |
| MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.9 | -0.03 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Tier 1 Fleet Race at SCC | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 1.16 |
| MDISA Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.0 | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 14.1 | -0.00 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Logan Downey |  University of Texas |
'29 |
| ISSA | Logan Downey |  School Without Walls |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
