MDISA Kent Island T2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 13 11 24
2 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 18 33 51
3 Gunston Gunston Herons 32 27 59
4 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 42 24 66
5 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 40 30 70
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 34 41 75
7 Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 48 45 93
8 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 40 54 94
9 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 55 61 116
10 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 64 59 123
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 13 James Lilyquist '24
Marc Hauenstein '23
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 2 2 3 1 2 1 18 Ryan Brelage '24
Jonathan Stevenson '23
Gunston Gunston Herons 9 3 3 1 5 5 6 32 Matthew Periconi '24 [1-4]
Ian Kissel '23 [5-7]
Ian Kissel '23 [1-4]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [5-7]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 8 10 4 6 3 1 2 34 Cristian Botsis '25 [1-7]
Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-2]
Saoirse Taylor '28 [3-7]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 2 5 6 4 7 6 10 40 Victor Schlecker '26
Abigayle Wyman '25
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 3 4 5 5 8 7 8 40 Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Hayden Medick '26 [3-4]
Carter Steiert '27 [1-2]
Zen Corby '26 [3-4]
Keely Flynn '25 [5-7]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 6 8 DSQ 4 4 5 42 Clara Wilson '25
Nolan Wingate '28
Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 6 7 7 7 6 8 7 48 Lance Shrum '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Finn Urie '26 [3-4, 7]
Finn Urie '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Lance Shrum '25 [3-4, 7]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 8 10 9 9 10 4 55 Caden Latchaw '23 [1-2, 7]
William Fachet '23 [3-4]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [5-6]
Audrey Valentino '24 [1-2]
Aidan Plank '24 [3-4]
Ava Worley '26 [5-6]
Ben Billets '27 [7]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 9 9 8 10 9 9 64 Cooper Wright '26 [1-6]
Grace Wilcox '26 [7]
Michael Finarelli '25 [1-6]
Logan Pavis '26 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 11 Will Clay '25
Kyle Engel '23
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 3 4 2 5 3 2 24 Thomas Birchfield '27
Freyja Raines '27
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 2 1 4 6 6 7 27 Tommy Mcgeady '25
Eli Moore '25
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 2 4 2 7 9 2 4 30 Nathaniel Wyman '28
Emerson Stehl '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 6 5 5 3 5 5 33 Adam Nilsson '25
Daniel Aaron '23
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 10 7 6 2 4 6 41 Victor Kleppinger '25
Caroline Welte '25
Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 7 7 9 8 4 7 3 45 Holden Shrum '28 [1, 5-7]
Aliana Shrum '26 [2-4]
Aliana Shrum '26 [1, 5-7]
Holden Shrum '28 [2-4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 10 5 6 10 7 8 8 54 Lily Moss '25 [1-7]
Annika Fisher '25 [1-2]
Rory Campbell '28 [3-4]
Miles Toner '25 [5-7]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 9 9 10 3 8 10 10 59 Leo Xiang '25 [1-4]
Richard Anderson '26 [5-7]
Logan Pavis '26 [1-4]
Alex Smith '25 [5-7]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 61 Zachary Wells '25 [1-2]
James Biles '27 [3-4]
Benjamin Clark '27 [5-7]
Henry Macmillan '26 [1-2]
Keefer Pullen '27 [3-4]
Gavin Klakring '27 [5-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets1133557
Kennett High SchoolKennett High School Kennett3355779
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers44668810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders5577991
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers668810102
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres9911335
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks7799113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights881010224
GunstonGunston Herons2244668
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans101022446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets2244668
Kennett High SchoolKennett High School Kennett44668810
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers5577991
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders668810102
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers7799113
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres101022446
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks881010224
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights9911335
GunstonGunston Herons3355779
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Ryan Brelage '24 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Hornets Adam Nilsson '25 Daniel Aaron '23
Gunston Gunston Matthew Periconi '24 [1-4]
Ian Kissel '23 [5-7]
Ian Kissel '23 [1-4]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [5-7]
Herons Tommy Mcgeady '25 Eli Moore '25
Kennett High School Kennett High School Lance Shrum '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Finn Urie '26 [3-4, 7]
Finn Urie '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Lance Shrum '25 [3-4, 7]
Kennett Holden Shrum '28 [1, 5-7]
Aliana Shrum '26 [2-4]
Aliana Shrum '26 [1, 5-7]
Holden Shrum '28 [2-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Caden Latchaw '23 [1-2, 7]
William Fachet '23 [3-4]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [5-6]
Audrey Valentino '24 [1-2]
Aidan Plank '24 [3-4]
Ava Worley '26 [5-6]
Ben Billets '27 [7]
Buccaneers Zachary Wells '25 [1-2]
James Biles '27 [3-4]
Benjamin Clark '27 [5-7]
Henry Macmillan '26 [1-2]
Keefer Pullen '27 [3-4]
Gavin Klakring '27 [5-7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School James Lilyquist '24 Marc Hauenstein '23
Raiders Will Clay '25 Kyle Engel '23
Patuxent Patuxent Clara Wilson '25 Nolan Wingate '28
Panthers Thomas Birchfield '27 Freyja Raines '27
South River High School South River High School Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Hayden Medick '26 [3-4]
Carter Steiert '27 [1-2]
Zen Corby '26 [3-4]
Keely Flynn '25 [5-7]
Seahawks Lily Moss '25 [1-7] Annika Fisher '25 [1-2]
Rory Campbell '28 [3-4]
Miles Toner '25 [5-7]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Cooper Wright '26 [1-6]
Grace Wilcox '26 [7]
Michael Finarelli '25 [1-6]
Logan Pavis '26 [7]
Knights Leo Xiang '25 [1-4]
Richard Anderson '26 [5-7]
Logan Pavis '26 [1-4]
Alex Smith '25 [5-7]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Cristian Botsis '25 [1-7] Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-2]
Saoirse Taylor '28 [3-7]
Sabres Victor Kleppinger '25 Caroline Welte '25
The Tome School The Tome School Victor Schlecker '26 Abigayle Wyman '25
Titans Nathaniel Wyman '28 Emerson Stehl '26

Conditions — 05/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →