Christchurch School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–12 (57%) as crew 24–2 (92%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–6 | 1–0 |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | — | 23–2 |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 39–14 against 34.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.26 | 1.37 | 3–6 | 3.9 | −0.89 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2022-10-08 | VISA Team Champs | crew | 2.25 | 4.13 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.88 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.24 | 3.74 | 12–1 | 10.6 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 2.03 | 4.02 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.98 | 2.4 | 7% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 1.79 | 2.10 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Hampton Roads Academy Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Champs | Crew | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 13 | 92% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| VISA HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.9 | 0.73 |
| VISA Granby Hague Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 1.50 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.05 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 2.27 |
| VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 0.69 |
| VISA Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 2.25 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.3 | 3.55 |
| MASSA Fleet Racing Silver Championships | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 1.99 |
| GOLD - Rose Bowl 2022 | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | -0.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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