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VISA Granby Hague Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 101
2 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 117
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 123
4 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 209
5 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 242
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 243
7 The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons 293
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 306
9 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 344
10 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 399
11 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 550
12 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 550
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints A 1 1 6 5 1 1 1 5 2 1 4 28 Kyle Pfrang '22
Kevin Li '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 A 2 3 2 3 2 3 5 4 7 13 1 45 William "Bo" Angus '25
Nikolas Salas Garcia '23
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity A 5 5 4 4 7 7 2 2 4 3 5 48 Blake Goodwin '23
Gracie Goodwin '25
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors A 4 8 9 1 11 2 9 1 3 2 3 53 Tyler Brown '23
Chloe Anderson '24
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity B 13 9 1 10 4 12 3 8 1 6 2 69 Luke Manternach '22 [1-11]
Helen Schmuck '23 [1-6]
Liam Burke '27 [7-11]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints B 3 2 12 15 3 5 6 6 5 8 8 73 Leila Pfrang '25
Madison Bivins '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 B 7 7 10 2 6 10 8 7 9 5 7 78 Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [1-11]
Simone Moss '25 [1-6]
Ellie Hasbrouck '24 [7-11]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 B 6 13 11 7 9 9 7 10 12 4 10 98 Olivia Gilmore '23
Emery Hill '23
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores A 10 6 3 14 15 11 11 9 8 12 6 105 Ava Morgan '25
Madeline Ballard '25
The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons A 12 4 DSQ 13 13 8 4 3 6 17 14 119 Charlotte Stillman '23 [1-9]
Justina Reynolds '24 [10-11]
Justina Reynolds '24 [1-4]
Aliyah Oakley '23 [5-9]
Charlotte Stillman '23 [10-11]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans A 8 10 8 17 5 4 12 16 14 14 16 124 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-11]
Hunter Walton '25 [1-5]
Riddick Walton '26 [6-11]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores B 11 12 16 6 12 13 17 11 15 15 9 137 Tucker Mcgrady '26 [1-11]
Lillian Rippel '25 [1-4, 10-11]
Gabby Cloe '24 [5-9]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 A 14 18 7 11 8 6 15 19 16 18 13 145 Chase Brewer '22
Grace Watlington '22
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 A 15 11 17 12 18 16 10 17 11 7 11 145 Cam Brewer '24
Caleb Kyle '25
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors B 16 16 5 8 19 15 18 15 18 9 17 156 Jack Herritage '24
Molly Hanson '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 B 9 15 18 16 17 17 13 13 17 11 15 161 Evan Harris '24
Barrett Wise '23
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms A 18 14 14 18 14 18 14 12 10 19 12 163 Kieran Mason '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Fogt '23 [3-4, 7-11]
Nick Fogt '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Kieran Mason '26 [3-4, 7-11]
The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons B 17 17 13 9 16 14 16 18 13 16 DSQ 174 Nicholas Davis '24 [1-11]
Thomas Bloys '24 [1-3, 10-11]
Hannah Bonheur '24 [4-9]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms B 19 19 15 19 10 19 19 14 19 10 18 181 Collin Mcpherson '24
Sophia Carleton '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 275 No Show
No Show
Granby High School Granby High School Comets A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 275 No Show
No Show
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 275 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 275 No Show
No Show
Granby High School Granby High School Comets B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 275 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11010101010101010101010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21111111111111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity77777777777
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets22222222222
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors1717171717171717171717
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores11111111111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints55555555555
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1818181818181818181818
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 11313131313131313131313
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 21414141414141414141414
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School The Tritons33333333333
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans88888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 12828282828282828282828
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22929292929292929292929
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity2525252525252525252525
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets2020202020202020202020
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors3535353535353535353535
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores1919191919191919191919
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints2323232323232323232323
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms3636363636363636363636
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 13131313131313131313131
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 23232323232323232323232
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School The Tritons2121212121212121212121
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans2626262626262626262626
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School William "Bo" Angus '25 Nikolas Salas Garcia '23
Seahorses 1 Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [1-11] Simone Moss '25 [1-6]
Ellie Hasbrouck '24 [7-11]
Christchurch School Christchurch School No Show No Show
Seahorses 2 No Show No Show
Grafton High School Grafton High School Blake Goodwin '23 Gracie Goodwin '25
Varsity Luke Manternach '22 [1-11] Helen Schmuck '23 [1-6]
Liam Burke '27 [7-11]
Granby High School Granby High School No Show No Show
Comets No Show No Show
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyler Brown '23 Chloe Anderson '24
Warriors Jack Herritage '24 Molly Hanson '23
Maury High School Maury High School Ava Morgan '25 Madeline Ballard '25
Commodores Tucker Mcgrady '26 [1-11] Lillian Rippel '25 [1-4, 10-11]
Gabby Cloe '24 [5-9]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 Kevin Li '23
Saints Leila Pfrang '25 Madison Bivins '25
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Kieran Mason '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Fogt '23 [3-4, 7-11]		 Nick Fogt '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Kieran Mason '26 [3-4, 7-11]
Phantoms Collin Mcpherson '24 Sophia Carleton '26
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Chase Brewer '22 Grace Watlington '22
Islanders 1 Olivia Gilmore '23 Emery Hill '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Cam Brewer '24 Caleb Kyle '25
Islanders 2 Evan Harris '24 Barrett Wise '23
The Hague School The Hague School Charlotte Stillman '23 [1-9]
Justina Reynolds '24 [10-11]		 Justina Reynolds '24 [1-4]
Aliyah Oakley '23 [5-9]
Charlotte Stillman '23 [10-11]
The Tritons Nicholas Davis '24 [1-11] Thomas Bloys '24 [1-3, 10-11]
Hannah Bonheur '24 [4-9]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-11] Hunter Walton '25 [1-5]
Riddick Walton '26 [6-11]
Trojans No Show No Show

Conditions — 04/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From ENE (67°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →