Phoebus High School '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 33.12 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.118 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 1.53 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2024 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.81 (fleet 1.30) | 172 of 231 | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–21 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 4–7 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 10–21 against 9.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta II | skipper | 0.88 | -0.30 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.18 | 0.4 | 92% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 1.10 | -1.03 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −2.13 | 1.0 | 98% |
| 2025-03-29 | VISA Poquoson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.00 | 3.15 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +2.14 | 1.2 | 23% |
| 2024-04-20 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.56 | -0.01 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.51 | 1.82 | 4–6 | 2.5 | +1.31 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Fleet Championship | Crew | B | 5 | 5.2 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.9 | -0.97 |
| VISA Granby Hague Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.8 | — |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | -2.10 |
| VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.6 | -0.97 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | -0.17 |
| VISA WCA/WA V Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.4 | -0.56 |
| VISA POQ Team 2/JV Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 0.70 |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 17.0 | -2.08 |
| VISA Fall JV Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.0 | 1.33 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Kieran Mason |  Kecoughtan High School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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