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VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 7 12 19
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 21 5 26
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 13 16 29
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 25 7 32
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 23 23 46
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 20 30 50
7 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 26 25 51
8 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 42 10 52
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 26 29 55
10 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 27 30 57
11 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 20 38 58
12 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 23 43 66
13 York High School York High School Varsity 36 33 69
14 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 29 42 71
15 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 45 27 72
16 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 38 40 78
17 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 55 53 108
18 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 49 63 112
19 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 52 63 115
20 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 54 63 117
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 2 4 7 Harrison Thomson '22
Kiana Beachy '24
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 10 1 2 13 Henry Allgeier '23
Rachael Buchanan '24
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2 11 7 20 Kyle Pfrang '22
Charlie Joseph '24
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 11 8 1 20 Robert Chase '22
Adam Elci '22
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 15 3 3 21 Madeline Janzen '25
Jaxon Parker Searcy '22
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 7 6 10 23 Olivia Gilmore '23
Emery Hill '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 13 5 5 23 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22
Simone Moss '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 9 4 12 25 Owen Grainger '24
Nathaniel Bonham '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 5 7 14 26 Jordan Vieira '24
Tobias Poder-Witzke '24
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 6 12 8 26 Parker Moore '25 [1-3]
Olivia Slider '22 [1-2]
Rocson Larocco '24 [3]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 3 15 9 27 Chase Brewer '22
Claire Dicarlo '22
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 14 9 6 29 Cal King '27
Alex Salzberg '25
York High School York High School Varsity 8 17 11 36 Justin Kelly '25
Liam Burke '27
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 4 19 15 38 Tyler Brown '23
Chloe Anderson '24
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 16 10 16 42 Blake Goodwin '23
Nathan Shaw '25
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 12 13 20 45 Sean Trudell '24 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3]
Emily Britt '23 [1-2]
Sabrina Casagrande '25 [3]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 18 18 13 49 Mosley Davidson '23
Miles Wilkin '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 19 16 17 52 John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [1]
Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [2-3]
Casey Moss '23 [1]
Jacob Carey '26 [2-3]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 DNF 14 19 54 Benjamin Fauda Trettel '24
Spencer Lawter '23
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 17 20 18 55 Katherine Anna Hamner '22
Bryce Mchose '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 1 3 5 Jj Klempen '23
Ellie Hasbrouck '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 4 2 1 7 William "Bo" Angus '25
Aidan Iaconis '22
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 2 6 2 10 Luke Manternach '22 [1-3]
Helen Schmuck '23 [1-2]
Lillian Mcdermott '25 [3]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 5 4 12 Maggie Campbell '22
Clara Murphy '23
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 8 3 5 16 Rebecca Schill '23
Marin Soderberg '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 5 10 8 23 Maison Koepke '23
Cameron Nealon '23
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 9 4 12 25 Pierce Brindley '24 [1-3]
Madeline Amthore '22 [1-2]
Olivia Slider '22 [3]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 14 7 6 27 Audrey Permenter '23
Anna Iacobucci '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 10 12 7 29 Pj Rodrigues Jr '24
Julius Poder-Witzke '24
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 9 14 30 Maddie Murphy '25
Jackson Delanty '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 13 8 9 30 Grace Watlington '22
Ava Michel '22
York High School York High School Varsity 6 14 13 33 Grif Mahan '25 [1-2]
Nick Fogt '23 [3]
Nick Fogt '23 [1-2]
Jake Marmon '24 [3]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 12 11 15 38 Leila Pfrang '25
Bennett Parker '24
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 11 13 16 40 Madison Newton '25
Jack Herritage '24
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 15 16 11 42 Mary Archer Connors '24
Charlotte Mccoy '24
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 16 17 10 43 Aubrey Walton '23
Barrett Wise '23
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans DNS 15 17 53 Mike Laccheo '23
Jack Popov '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 DNS DNS DNS 63
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 DNS DNS DNS 63
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 DNS DNS DNS 63
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 4444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 5555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 6191919
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 7202020
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity666
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators777
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors888
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints999
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1101010
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2111111
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3141414
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 1151515
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 2161616
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans171717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity181818

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 4444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 5555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 6191919
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 7202020
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity666
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators777
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors888
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints999
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1101010
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2111111
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3141414
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 1151515
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 2161616
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans171717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Simone Moss '25
Seahorses 1 Maison Koepke '23 Cameron Nealon '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Madeline Janzen '25 Jaxon Parker Searcy '22
Seahorses 2 Jj Klempen '23 Ellie Hasbrouck '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Owen Grainger '24 Nathaniel Bonham '24
Seahorses 3 William "Bo" Angus '25 Aidan Iaconis '22
Christchurch School Christchurch School Jordan Vieira '24 Tobias Poder-Witzke '24
Seahorses 4 Pj Rodrigues Jr '24 Julius Poder-Witzke '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [1]
Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [2-3]		 Casey Moss '23 [1]
Jacob Carey '26 [2-3]
Seahorses 5
Christchurch School Christchurch School Mosley Davidson '23 Miles Wilkin '23
Seahorses 6
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benjamin Fauda Trettel '24 Spencer Lawter '23
Seahorses 7
Grafton High School Grafton High School Blake Goodwin '23 Nathan Shaw '25
Varsity Luke Manternach '22 [1-3] Helen Schmuck '23 [1-2]
Lillian Mcdermott '25 [3]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Parker Moore '25 [1-3] Olivia Slider '22 [1-2]
Rocson Larocco '24 [3]
Navigators Pierce Brindley '24 [1-3] Madeline Amthore '22 [1-2]
Olivia Slider '22 [3]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyler Brown '23 Chloe Anderson '24
Warriors Madison Newton '25 Jack Herritage '24
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 Charlie Joseph '24
Saints Leila Pfrang '25 Bennett Parker '24
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Henry Allgeier '23 Rachael Buchanan '24
Bulldogs 1 Rebecca Schill '23 Marin Soderberg '24
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Sean Trudell '24 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3]		 Emily Britt '23 [1-2]
Sabrina Casagrande '25 [3]
Bulldogs 2 Audrey Permenter '23 Anna Iacobucci '25
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Harrison Thomson '22 Kiana Beachy '24
Oaks 1 Maggie Campbell '22 Clara Murphy '23
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Robert Chase '22 Adam Elci '22
Oaks 2 Maddie Murphy '25 Jackson Delanty '23
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Cal King '27 Alex Salzberg '25
Oaks 3 Mary Archer Connors '24 Charlotte Mccoy '24
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Chase Brewer '22 Claire Dicarlo '22
Islanders 1 Grace Watlington '22 Ava Michel '22
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Olivia Gilmore '23 Emery Hill '23
Islanders 2 Aubrey Walton '23 Barrett Wise '23
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Bryce Mchose '24
Trojans Mike Laccheo '23 Jack Popov '24
York High School York High School Justin Kelly '25 Liam Burke '27
Varsity Grif Mahan '25 [1-2]
Nick Fogt '23 [3]		 Nick Fogt '23 [1-2]
Jake Marmon '24 [3]

Conditions — 09/11/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 3 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch school: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.52 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch school by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Christchurch school, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →