Christchurch School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–8 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 15–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 15–8 against 15.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 1.69 | -0.20 | 5–7 | 7.6 | −1.89 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 1.71 | 4.46 | 10–1 | 7.6 | +2.76 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | 1.82 |
| VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 1.68 |
| VISA Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 1.39 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 9.7 | — |
| MASSA Fleet Racing Silver Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.8 | 3.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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