| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 12–1 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 11–2 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 9–5 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 5–9 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 6–6 |
| 6 |  |
Granby High School | Comets | 5–7 |
| 7 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 4–8 |
| 8 |  |
The Hague School | The Tritons | 3–9 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,946 team race matches sailed before 2022-09-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 57 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.419 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 6.90 | 8.40 | 12–1 | 10.6 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 5.09 | 6.20 | 9–5 | 7.0 | +1.11 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 5 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 2.67 | 3.65 | 6–6 | 4.4 | +0.97 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 8 | The Hague School The Tritons | 1.48 | 2.09 | 3–9 | 2.2 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 7 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 2.27 | 2.53 | 4–8 | 3.6 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.94 | 7.14 | 11–2 | 10.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 6 | Granby High School Comets | 3.77 | 2.74 | 5–7 | 6.6 | −1.03 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 4.85 | 3.81 | 5–9 | 6.7 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 3.12 | 0.99 | 2–10 | 5.1 | −2.12 | 3.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | Granby High School | 0.59 | 3.59 | 4–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 37% |
| Madeline "Maddie" Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.17 | 3.67 | 12–1 | 10.6 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 25% |
| Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen | Christchurch School | 2.14 | 3.63 | 12–1 | 10.6 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 25% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.09 | 2.24 | 6–4 | 4.3 | +1.14 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Cal King | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.34 | 2.43 | 8–5 | 6.1 | +1.08 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Eliana Jin | Norfolk Academy | 0.67 | 1.54 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.86 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Thomas Bloys | The Hague School | -0.35 | 0.26 | 3–9 | 2.2 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Aubrey Walton | Poquoson High School | 0.81 | 1.15 | 4–6 | 3.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Evan Harris | Poquoson High School | 0.42 | 0.70 | 4–7 | 3.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 1.19 | 1.45 | 4–8 | 3.6 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda | Christchurch School | 2.37 | 2.57 | 11–2 | 10.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 60% |
| James Savage | Norfolk Academy | 0.81 | 0.69 | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Jordan Viera | Christchurch School | 2.25 | 1.78 | 7–2 | 7.4 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.88 | -0.16 | 5–9 | 6.7 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Barrett Wise | Poquoson High School | 0.43 | -2.57 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Comets | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Comets | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Comets | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Comets | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Commodores | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Comets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
The Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Comets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Comets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 44 | |
Comets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
The Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Comets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Comets | 1-5-6 |
| 49 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Islanders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Comets | 2-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Oaks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
