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2022 MASSA Fall Girls Invitational Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 44 44
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 74 74
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 76 76
4 Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 80 80
5 Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 105 105
6 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 122 122
7 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 130 130
8 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 140 140
9 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 147 MRP 147 MRP
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 185 185
11 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 191 MRP 191 MRP
12 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 193 193
13 Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 203 203
14 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 212 212
15 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 215 MRP 215 MRP
16 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 219 MRP 219 MRP
17 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 238 238
18 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 269 269
19 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 279 279
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 5 4 2 2 4 4 2 1 1 4 1 2 1 1 5 5 44 Samara Walshe '25
Lucy Jervis '23
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 7 3 1 4 2 5 1 7 2 9 3 5 3 8 7 7 74 Rebecca Schill '23
Marin Soderberg '24
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 6 6 3 5 3 3 3 6 1 2 1 7 14 11 2 76 Madeline "Maddie" Janzen '25
Maria Del Rosario De Tomas Perello '23
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 10 8 11 7 1 4 2 5 6 4 3 5 2 2 8 80 Ava Cornell '24
Scarlett Harris '24
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 1 2 3 5 6 DSQ 5 4 7 2 9 12 4 4 9 12 105 Winn Majette '23 [1-5, 10-12, 14-16]
Ava Hurwitz '23 [6-9, 13]
Caitlin Briggs '23 [1-5, 11-12]
Katherine Majette '23 [6-10, 13-16]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 13 5 5 8 1 8 11 10 11 12 7 4 9 7 8 3 122 Ava Anderson '23 [1-11, 14-16]
Kailey Warrior '23 [12-13]
Kailey Warrior '23 [1-11, 14-16]
Ava Anderson '23 [12-13]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 12 12 11 1 3 10 7 6 8 11 8 10 11 6 1 13 130 Belle Placa '25 [1-16]
Natalie Shaw '23 [1-5]
Erin Little '24 [6-16]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 17 1 12 6 18 6 8 5 9 5 10 8 10 13 6 6 140 Mairead Reitzel '24
Amy Li '23
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 7 4 7 11 9 14 8 4 3 12 11 15 5 3 10 147 MRP Olivia Drulard '23 [1-5]
Ava Mc Aliley '26 [6-16]
Violet Martin '24 [1-7]
Evelyn Yu '24 [8-16]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 14 15 13 9 10 2 6 13 RAF 15 6 13 14 10 10 15 185 Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [1-16]
Simone Moss '25 [1-8, 16]
Ellie Hasbrauch '24 [9-15]
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 6 9 9 13 DSQ 7 9 16 3 10 17 7 6 17 4 18 191 MRP Gabby Collins '24 [1-16]
Lanie Ferrarone '24 [1-5, 11-13]
Sadie Yoder '24 [6-10, 14-16]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 11 16 10 18 16 15 10 17 12 8 5 6 18 12 18 1 193 Madison Newton '25
Chloe Anderson '24
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 10 18 18 16 14 16 15 14 16 13 14 9 2 11 13 4 203 Charlotte Macdonald '26 [1-10]
Annie Sitzmann '26 [11-16]
Kate Castleberry '24 [1-10]
Reese Corckran '24 [11-16]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 18 14 7 10 8 13 12 15 17 7 19 16 8 15 16 17 212 Grace Bray '23
Sophia Behar '25
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 8 8 14 14 9 11 17 11 15 14 11 18 13 9 14 9 215 MRP Leila Pfrang '25 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10, 13-15]
Gianna Dewey '23 [3-4, 7, 11-12, 16]
Gianna Dewey '23 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10, 13-15]
Leila Pfrang '25 [3-4, 7, 11-12, 16]
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 9 11 15 15 15 12 13 9 13 RAF 15 14 12 3 12 11 219 MRP Callie Hammond '25
Cordelia Weld '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 16 17 16 17 12 14 16 12 10 17 13 15 16 18 15 14 238 Louisa Kalinski '25
Caroline Welte '25
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 15 13 17 12 13 18 18 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 17 16 269 Jamie Lynch '23 [1-5, 16]
Caroline Caviness '25 [6-10]
Keira Press '23 [11-15]
Keira Press '23 [1-5]
Divyanshi Rath '25 [6-15]
Caroline Caviness '25 [16]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 19 19 19 19 17 17 BYE 18 14 16 16 17 17 16 19 19 279 Phoebe Milhollin '24
Sally Esquith '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
Antilles SchoolAntilles School Hurricanes1111122222333334
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars2222233333444445
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 13333344444555556
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 24444455555666667
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights5555566666777778
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity77777888889999910
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators8888899999101010101011
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors999991010101010111111111112
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers10101010101111111111121212121213
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs11111111111212121212131313131314
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers12121212121313131313141414141415
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders13131313131414141414151515151516
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres17171717171818181818191919191923
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 114141414141515151515161616161617
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 215151515151616161616171717171718
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams16161616161717171717181818181819
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats1818181818191919191923232323231
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears19191919192323232323111112
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings232323232311111222223
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes Winn Majette '23 [1-5, 10-12, 14-16]
Ava Hurwitz '23 [6-9, 13]		 Caitlin Briggs '23 [1-5, 11-12]
Katherine Majette '23 [6-10, 13-16]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars Jamie Lynch '23 [1-5, 16]
Caroline Caviness '25 [6-10]
Keira Press '23 [11-15]		 Keira Press '23 [1-5]
Divyanshi Rath '25 [6-15]
Caroline Caviness '25 [16]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 Madeline "Maddie" Janzen '25 Maria Del Rosario De Tomas Perello '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 [1-16] Simone Moss '25 [1-8, 16]
Ellie Hasbrauch '24 [9-15]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights Ava Anderson '23 [1-11, 14-16]
Kailey Warrior '23 [12-13]		 Kailey Warrior '23 [1-11, 14-16]
Ava Anderson '23 [12-13]
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity Callie Hammond '25 Cordelia Weld '22
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Leila Pfrang '25 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10, 13-15]
Gianna Dewey '23 [3-4, 7, 11-12, 16]		 Gianna Dewey '23 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10, 13-15]
Leila Pfrang '25 [3-4, 7, 11-12, 16]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors Madison Newton '25 Chloe Anderson '24
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers Gabby Collins '24 [1-16] Lanie Ferrarone '24 [1-5, 11-13]
Sadie Yoder '24 [6-10, 14-16]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs Rebecca Schill '23 Marin Soderberg '24
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers Grace Bray '23 Sophia Behar '25
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders Olivia Drulard '23 [1-5]
Ava Mc Aliley '26 [6-16]		 Violet Martin '24 [1-7]
Evelyn Yu '24 [8-16]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 Ava Cornell '24 Scarlett Harris '24
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 Charlotte Macdonald '26 [1-10]
Annie Sitzmann '26 [11-16]		 Kate Castleberry '24 [1-10]
Reese Corckran '24 [11-16]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams Belle Placa '25 [1-16] Natalie Shaw '23 [1-5]
Erin Little '24 [6-16]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres Louisa Kalinski '25 Caroline Welte '25
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats Samara Walshe '25 Lucy Jervis '23
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears Mairead Reitzel '24 Amy Li '23
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings Phoebe Milhollin '24 Sally Esquith '24

Conditions — 11/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From SSE (162°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1022.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Severn: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Severn, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →