Christchurch School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 (fleet 2.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–12 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 11–7 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 18–12 against 20.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 1.80 | 0.26 | 3–3 | 4.1 | −1.54 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2023-03-18 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.77 | 1.26 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2022-10-08 | VISA Team Champs | skipper | 1.79 | 1.15 | 7–5 | 7.8 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| VISA Hampton Roads Academy Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 2.69 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 1.52 |
| MASSA Silver Fleet Championship spring 2023 | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 2.90 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Champs | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| VISA State Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 0.97 |
| MASSA Silver Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.0 | 2.24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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