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VISA Hague Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 13 5 18
2 Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 10 14 24
3 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 12 25 37
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 24 17 41
5 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 25 23 48
6 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 2 29 19 48
7 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 1 32 31 63
8 York High School York High School Falcons 29 37 66
9 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 46 MRP 35 MRP 81 MRP
10 Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 25 57 MRP 82 MRP
11 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 41 52 93
12 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 52 52 104
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 5 1 1 3 10 Blake Goodwin '23
Helen Schmuck '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 1 2 7 2 12 Aubrey Walton '23
Tyler Sebring '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 6 3 3 1 13 Olivia Gilmore '23
Cate Rutter '24
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 3 7 5 9 24 Reagan Evans '23 [1-4]
Gabby Cloe '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Mccoy '24 [3-4]
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 4 9 2 10 25 Angelo Bellecci '25 [1-4]
Jonathan Rutter '27 [1-2]
Tyler Sebring '27 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 7 4 10 4 25 Kieran Mason '26
Molly Hanson '23
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 2 8 8 8 5 29 Justina Reynolds '24
Aliyah Oakley '23
York High School York High School Falcons 10 6 6 7 29 Felix Susta '27
Evan Britton '27
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 1 9 OCS 4 6 32 Charlotte Stillman '23
Nathan Libby '26
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 11 10 9 11 41 Slater Freischlag '24
Lauren Fenty '24
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 5 11 8 46 MRP Sarah Moore '29
Sophia Vassilakos '26
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 52 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 1 2 1 1 5 Cam Brewer '24
Emery Hill '23
Grafton High School Grafton High School Clippers 5 3 2 4 14 Nick Fogt '23
Felix Susta '27
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 2 7 6 2 17 Tucker Mcgrady '26
Caspian Collett '25
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 2 4 5 4 6 19 Austin Sadler '26
James Allgeier '27
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 9 4 7 3 23 Chloe Anderson '24
Scarlett Foster '26
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 7 6 5 7 25 Barrett Wise '23 [1-4]
Jackson Raymond '27 [1-2]
Brett Clemmey '27 [3-4]
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 1 8 10 8 5 31 Nicholas Davis '24
Thomas Bloys '24
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 3 1 3 8 35 MRP Charlie Moore '27
Sophia Vassilakos '26
York High School York High School Falcons 6 9 9 DNF 37 Hunter Walton '25
Tyler Compton '29
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons DSQ DSQ DNS DNS 52 Slater Freischlag '24
Elizabeth Jensen '25
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 52 No Show
No Show
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 10 8 10 9 57 MRP Madison Bivins '25
Megan Allman '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons7777
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers8888
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators12121212
Heritage High School - VAHeritage High School - VA Heritage - VA11111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors10101010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 11111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 22222
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 15555
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 26666
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons 13333
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons 24444
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons9999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons7777
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Clippers8888
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators12121212
Heritage High School - VAHeritage High School - VA Heritage - VA11111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors10101010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 11111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 22222
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 15555
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 26666
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons 13333
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons 24444
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons9999

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1009.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →