Grafton High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.22 (fleet -0.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 2–12 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | — | 2–8 |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 0–1 |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 0–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 2–11 against 3.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | crew | 0.63 | -0.35 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.98 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | crew | 0.67 | -2.33 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race | Crew | B | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | B | 5 | 8.8 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 13.2 | — |
| VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 13.3 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Maury/Granby JV/Team 2 Fleet Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 7.0 | — |
| VISA CCS JV Fleet Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 2.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Tyler Compton |  Peninsula Catholic High School |
'28 |
| ISSA | Tyler Compton |  Phoebus High School |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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