O'Day Qualifier @ Bristol, RI

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 16 14 30
2 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 20 13 33
3 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 29 24 53
4 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 15 40 55
5 Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 38 24 62
6 The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 43 24 67
7 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 26 44 70
8 Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 47 40 87
9 Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 39 49 88
10 Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 57 58 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 4 1 1 2 3 4 15 Charlie Fairfax '22
Maisy Sperry '24
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 6 3 2 1 1 3 16 Sophie Fisher '22 [1-6]
Hope Breslin '22 [1-4]
Courtland Doyle '22 [5-6]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 1 9 3 3 2 2 20 Nathan Smith '22
Liam Barry '23
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 3 2 4 7 5 5 26 Gavin Monaghan` '22
Farrell Saluja '22
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 2 7 6 9 4 1 29 Olin Guck '22 [1-6]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [1-4]
Nate Schneider '22 [5-6]
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 10 4 7 4 7 6 38 Arden Carleton '22 [1-4]
Toby Clarkson '24 [5-6]
Kate Mason '23 [1-4]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 5 6 5 8 8 7 39 Otto Kalfelz '23
Marley Mills '24
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 7 8 9 5 6 8 43 Francie Lewis '24 [1-4]
Abbey Grandin '23 [5-6]
Noah Desantis '22 [1-4]
Claire Lewis '23 [5-6]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 8 5 10 6 9 9 47 Sophia Rey '22
Orlaith Neylon '22
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 9 10 8 10 10 10 57 Hannah Hills '25
Meg Sledge '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 2 4 2 2 2 1 13 Alex Adams '22
Felix Cutler '22
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 4 2 1 1 1 5 14 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 [1-6]
Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-4]
Sloane Mullin '23 [5-6]
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 1 3 4 3 7 6 24 Bobby Clarkson '23 [1-6]
Piper Carleton '24 [1-4]
Otto Schoenthal '25 [5-6]
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 3 5 3 5 5 3 24 Jake Demos '23 [1-6]
Carter Sheehan '23 [1-4]
Noah Desantis '22 [5-6]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 6 1 6 4 3 4 24 Gus Macaulay '23 [1-6]
Quin Schneider '25 [1-4]
Jack Culton '22 [5-6]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 5 6 5 7 9 8 40 Parker Brown '22 [1-4]
Morgan Spring '25 [5-6]
Jonothan Guinan '22 [1-4]
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 7 7 9 6 4 7 40 Camilla Murray '23 [1-4]
Will Fairfax '24 [5-6]
Will Fairfax '24 [1-4]
Dominique Spinola '22 [5-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 10 10 7 9 6 2 44 Madeline Koelbel '22
Harrison Vose '22
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 8 8 8 8 8 9 49 Noah Hemingway '23
Talia Levine '22
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 9 9 10 10 10 10 58 Suzie Edwards '24
Della Hahn '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles113355
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold224466
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians335577
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons446688
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles557799
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers66881010
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens779911
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings88101022
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons991133
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders10102244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles224466
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold335577
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians446688
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons557799
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles66881010
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers779911
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens88101022
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings991133
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons10102244
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barrington High School Barrington High School Olin Guck '22 [1-6] Christopher Chwalk '24 [1-4]
Nate Schneider '22 [5-6]
Eagles Gus Macaulay '23 [1-6] Quin Schneider '25 [1-4]
Jack Culton '22 [5-6]
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS Hannah Hills '25 Meg Sledge '24
SeaHawks Gold Suzie Edwards '24 Della Hahn '22
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Charlie Fairfax '22 Maisy Sperry '24
Indians Camilla Murray '23 [1-4]
Will Fairfax '24 [5-6]
Will Fairfax '24 [1-4]
Dominique Spinola '22 [5-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Gavin Monaghan` '22 Farrell Saluja '22
Dragons Madeline Koelbel '22 Harrison Vose '22
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Arden Carleton '22 [1-4]
Toby Clarkson '24 [5-6]
Kate Mason '23 [1-4]
Eagles Bobby Clarkson '23 [1-6] Piper Carleton '24 [1-4]
Otto Schoenthal '25 [5-6]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Otto Kalfelz '23 Marley Mills '24
Quakers Noah Hemingway '23 Talia Levine '22
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Nathan Smith '22 Liam Barry '23
Ravens Alex Adams '22 Felix Cutler '22
Rogers High School Rogers High School Sophia Rey '22 Orlaith Neylon '22
Vikings Parker Brown '22 [1-4]
Morgan Spring '25 [5-6]
Jonothan Guinan '22 [1-4]
St. George's School St. George's School Sophie Fisher '22 [1-6] Hope Breslin '22 [1-4]
Courtland Doyle '22 [5-6]
Dragons Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 [1-6] Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-4]
Sloane Mullin '23 [5-6]
The Prout School The Prout School Francie Lewis '24 [1-4]
Abbey Grandin '23 [5-6]
Noah Desantis '22 [1-4]
Claire Lewis '23 [5-6]
Crusaders Jake Demos '23 [1-6] Carter Sheehan '23 [1-4]
Noah Desantis '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 05/01/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Portsmouth Abbey School: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.47 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Portsmouth Abbey School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Portsmouth Abbey School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →