St. George's School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.93 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–10 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 15–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 15–10 against 17.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | NIT (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.06 | 2.31 | 4–1 | 3.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.02 | 1.37 | 11–9 | 13.2 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| 2019 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.7 | 0.64 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Bristol | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.1 | 5.04 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019 | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 3.54 |
| NIT (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.5 | -0.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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