| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | 1–1 |
| 3 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,405 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.493 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Trier HS Trevian | 2 | 4.96 school −0.09 | Quinn Keenan / Anna Mcbride 1.82 Dylan Hardt / Sarah Trunsky 1.51 Nathan Whisner / Izzy Cox 1.71 | 58% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats | 1 | 5.09 school +0.25 | Will Carroll / Will Thorton 1.52 Spencer Barnes / Jp Wynne 2.16 Jp Starck / Ethan Fisher 1.14 | 62% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.2 |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 3 | 3.98 | Nicole Millerman / Jack Bull 1.18 Isabel Dziuba / Jake Elsen 1.12 Matthew Elliott / Walter Paliga 1.67 | 30% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Trier HS | 4.96 | 7.96 | 2–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 32% |
| 2 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 5.09 | 4.47 | 1–1 | 1.2 | −0.62 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School | 3.98 | 0.98 | 0–2 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New Trier HS | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | New Trier HS | West Bloomfield High School | 68% | |
| 1 | 3 | St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | West Bloomfield High School | 70% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Dylan Hardt '20 Nathan Whisner '19 Quinn Keenan '19 |
Sarah Trunsky '21 Izzy Cox '19 Anna Mcbride '20 |
|
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH | Wildcats | Jp Starck '20 Spencer Barnes '20 Will Carroll '21 |
Ethan Fisher '22 Jp Wynne '20 Will Thorton '20 |
|
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | Isabel Dziuba '19 Matthew Elliott '20 Nicole Millerman '19 |
Jake Elsen '21 Walter Paliga '22 Jack Bull '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
