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Fall Foundry #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 1 6 15 21
2 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1 37 19 56
3 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 2 27 30 57
4 Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity 26 39 65
5 Avon High School Avon High School Mixed 28 46 74
6 Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 2 41 35 76
7 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 3 50 31 81
8 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 1 54 39 93
9 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 2 46 52 98
10 Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 30 71 101
11 Put-in-Bay High School Put-in-Bay High School Panthers Varsity 74 48 122
12 Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Mixed 61 80 141
13 Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Mixed 87 63 150
14 Beaumont High School Beaumont High School Varsity 82 70 152
15 New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 76 95 171
16 Bay High School Bay High School Mixed 91 83 174
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Jack Vanderhorst '22
Ellen Petrigan '22
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity 4 2 3 7 5 5 26 Michaela O'Donnell '20
Megan Fegen '22
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 2 2 3 6 2 2 12 27 Jp Starck '20
Joe Lavelle '23
Avon High School Avon High School Mixed 5 4 2 6 4 7 28 Iain Mcsweeney '20
Angel Martinez '23
Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 3 8 5 5 7 2 30 Sophia Van Heeckeren '20
Daniel Van Heeckeren '22
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1 7 10 7 3 6 4 37 Eric Pohl '22
Ethan Fisher '22
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 2 8 5 11 11 3 3 41 Robert Mansuetto '21
Kellie Keane '24
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 2 10 6 4 9 9 8 46 Joey Bonacci '21
Jackie Rosenbaum '21
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 3 6 12 8 4 11 9 50 Will Thornton '20
Gavin Hirz '23
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 1 9 9 12 8 10 6 54 Bill Lazarro '22
Conor Mcmahon '24
Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Mixed 11 7 14 10 8 11 61 Ashlin Fegen '20
Isabella Holsman '24
Put-in-Bay High School Put-in-Bay High School Panthers Varsity 14 13 10 14 13 10 74 Macy Ladd '23
Hope Cooks '24
New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 12 15 9 13 12 15 76 Fisher Howe '21
Cassidy Hopcraft '22
Beaumont High School Beaumont High School Varsity 13 11 15 12 15 16 82 Grace French '23
Lilly Kijewski '21
Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Mixed 16 14 13 16 14 14 87 Sofia Ely '22
Gavin Gaylor '25
Bay High School Bay High School Mixed 15 16 16 15 16 13 91 Ryan Johnson '24
Nolan Naughton '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 1 1 2 2 2 1 7 15 Jonathan Mack '22
Ashley Almquist '22
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1 6 1 1 1 2 8 19 Will Carroll '21
Luke Zidar '23
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 2 3 8 3 3 12 1 30 Charles Pohl '22
Keegan Sheehan '24
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 3 7 6 7 5 3 3 31 Ben Slater '20
John Wagner '23
Bay High School Bay High School Varsity 2 2 4 6 6 5 12 35 Annika Vanderhorst '23
Ella Adelman '22
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity 4 10 4 9 6 6 39 Grace Quasebarth '20
Marie Genevieve Boushelle '22
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 1 5 7 11 4 8 4 39 Jacob Myers '24
Isabella Kovacs '24
Avon High School Avon High School Mixed 10 9 5 8 9 5 46 Charlie Movius '22
Annette Breton '23
Put-in-Bay High School Put-in-Bay High School Panthers Varsity 8 11 9 7 4 9 48 Talii Steidl '21
Alexandra Knauer '20
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Varsity 2 9 3 8 11 10 11 52 Buck Rathbun '24
Max Movius '24
Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Mixed 12 12 14 12 11 2 63 Erin Beaver '24
Jolene Jirosek '20
Beaumont High School Beaumont High School Varsity 11 5 13 13 14 14 70 Grace Delaney '21
Megan Shivak '21
Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 13 13 10 10 15 10 71 Andy Solganik '21
Fisher Allyn '21
Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Mixed 14 14 15 15 7 15 80 Liam Filson '24
Kati Burdette '23
Bay High School Bay High School Mixed 15 16 12 14 13 13 83 Noah Scholtz '25
Ana Greer '25
New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 16 15 16 16 16 16 95 Jack Fischer '25
Emma Hershey '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Avon High SchoolAvon High School Mixed113355
Bay High SchoolBay High School Mixed446688
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity 1224466
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity 2335577
Beaumont High SchoolBeaumont High School Varsity557799
Hawken SchoolHawken School Hawks66881010
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Mixed77991111
Notre Dame Cathedral LatinNotre Dame Cathedral Latin Mixed8810101212
Put-in-Bay High SchoolPut-in-Bay High School Panthers Varsity9911111313
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Varsity 1101012121414
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Varsity 2111113131515
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity121214141616
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 11313151511
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 21414161622
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 315151133
Westerville South High SchoolWesterville South High School Mixed16162244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Avon High SchoolAvon High School Mixed224466
Bay High SchoolBay High School Mixed557799
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity 1335577
Bay High SchoolBay High School Varsity 2446688
Beaumont High SchoolBeaumont High School Varsity66881010
Hawken SchoolHawken School Hawks77991111
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Mixed8810101212
Notre Dame Cathedral LatinNotre Dame Cathedral Latin Mixed9911111313
Put-in-Bay High SchoolPut-in-Bay High School Panthers Varsity101012121414
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Varsity 1111113131515
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Varsity 2121214141616
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity1313151511
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 11414161622
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 215151133
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 316162244
Westerville South High SchoolWesterville South High School Mixed113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Avon High School Avon High School Iain Mcsweeney '20 Angel Martinez '23
Mixed Charlie Movius '22 Annette Breton '23
Bay High School Bay High School Ryan Johnson '24 Nolan Naughton '25
Mixed Noah Scholtz '25 Ana Greer '25
Bay High School Bay High School Jack Vanderhorst '22 Ellen Petrigan '22
Varsity 1 Jonathan Mack '22 Ashley Almquist '22
Bay High School Bay High School Robert Mansuetto '21 Kellie Keane '24
Varsity 2 Annika Vanderhorst '23 Ella Adelman '22
Beaumont High School Beaumont High School Grace French '23 Lilly Kijewski '21
Varsity Grace Delaney '21 Megan Shivak '21
Hawken School Hawken School Sophia Van Heeckeren '20 Daniel Van Heeckeren '22
Hawks Andy Solganik '21 Fisher Allyn '21
New Albany High School New Albany High School Fisher Howe '21 Cassidy Hopcraft '22
Mixed Jack Fischer '25 Emma Hershey '23
Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Notre Dame Cathedral Latin Ashlin Fegen '20 Isabella Holsman '24
Mixed Liam Filson '24 Kati Burdette '23
Put-in-Bay High School Put-in-Bay High School Macy Ladd '23 Hope Cooks '24
Panthers Varsity Talii Steidl '21 Alexandra Knauer '20
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Bill Lazarro '22 Conor Mcmahon '24
Varsity 1 Jacob Myers '24 Isabella Kovacs '24
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Joey Bonacci '21 Jackie Rosenbaum '21
Varsity 2 Buck Rathbun '24 Max Movius '24
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Michaela O'Donnell '20 Megan Fegen '22
Varsity Grace Quasebarth '20 Marie Genevieve Boushelle '22
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Eric Pohl '22 Ethan Fisher '22
Wildcats 1 Will Carroll '21 Luke Zidar '23
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Jp Starck '20 Joe Lavelle '23
Wildcats 2 Charles Pohl '22 Keegan Sheehan '24
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Thornton '20 Gavin Hirz '23
Wildcats 3 Ben Slater '20 John Wagner '23
Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Sofia Ely '22 Gavin Gaylor '25
Mixed Erin Beaver '24 Jolene Jirosek '20

Conditions — 10/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.7 kn
avg  ·  max 14.8 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From E (88°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.58 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Aurora/Avon/Avon Lake/Bay/Beaumont/Benedictine/Firestone/Notre Dame Cathedral/Rocky River/Saint Joseph Academy/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH)/University/Westlake: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.09 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Aurora/Avon/Avon Lake/Bay/Beaumont/Benedictine/Firestone/Notre Dame Cathedral/Rocky River/Saint Joseph Academy/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH)/University/Westlake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Aurora/Avon/Avon Lake/Bay/Beaumont/Benedictine/Firestone/Notre Dame Cathedral/Rocky River/Saint Joseph Academy/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH)/University/Westlake, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →