Fall #3 @ The Foundry

HostThe Station
Date10/28/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	13	7	20
2	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 1	15	18	33
3	Lakewood High School (OH)	Rangers	21	33	54
4	Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	41	19	60
5	Hawken School	Hawks	39	27	66
6	Rocky River High School	Pirates 1	24	49	73
7	Rocky River High School	Pirates 2	47	31	78
8	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 2	24	56	80
9	Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	49	43	92

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	1	1	4	3	3	1	13	Molly Matthews '19 [1-6] Faith Gaertner '20 [1-4] Danny Heilman '23 [5-6]
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 1	6	2	2	1	1	3	15	Spencer Barnes '20 Jp Wynn '19
Lakewood High School (OH)	Rangers	2	5	5	5	2	2	21	Luke Healy '18 [1-6] Max Boland '19 [1-2] Kiera Hoye '19 [3-6]
Rocky River High School	Pirates 1	4	3	3	2	4	8	24	Libby Weixel '18 Natalie Dugan '18
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 2	5	4	1	4	6	4	24	Jp Starck '18 Eddie Keck '19
Hawken School	Hawks	3	6	7	DNF	8	5	39	Fisher Allyn '21 Gordon Johnson '18
Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	9	8	6	7	5	6	41	Alex White '20 [1-6] Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-2] Kyla Bugarin '20 [3-6]
Rocky River High School	Pirates 2	7	9	9	8	7	7	47	Santiago Echevarria '22 Aiden Carter '22
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	8	7	8	6	DNS	DNS	49	Ellen Petrigan '22 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Quasebarth '20 [3-4] Grace Quasebarth '20 [1-2, 5-6] Ellen Petrigan '22 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	1	2	1	1	1	1	7	Ian Reimel '19 [1-6] Danny Heilman '23 [1-2] Michael Kalata '18 [3-6]
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 1	2	1	3	3	4	5	18	Will Carroll '19 Will Thorton '19
Grosse IIe High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	4	7	2	2	2	2	19	Maren Matthews '22 [1-6] Reyn White '19 [1-4] Jimmy Souilliere '23 [5-6]
Hawken School	Hawks	7	6	4	4	3	3	27	Michaela O'Donnell '20 Fisher Allyn '21
Rocky River High School	Pirates 2	6	5	5	6	5	4	31	Charlie Movius '22 Joey Bonacci '21
Lakewood High School (OH)	Rangers	3	3	6	7	7	7	33	Parker Polen '20 [1-6] Jack Wynn '20 [1-2, 5-6] Max Boland '19 [3-4]
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	DNS	9	7	5	6	6	43	Ashlin N. Fegen '20 Moira Steinmetz '20
Rocky River High School	Pirates 1	5	4	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	49	Margot Dugan '20 Blair Pichola '23
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats 2	8	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	56	Patrick Sheehan '18 Ben Slater '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	2	2	3	3	7	7
Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	3	3	5	5	8	8
Hawken School Hawks	5	5	6	6	9	9
Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers	6	6	7	7	10	10
Rocky River High School Pirates 1	7	7	8	8	11	11
Rocky River High School Pirates 2	8	8	9	9	2	2
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity	9	9	10	10	3	3
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1	10	10	11	11	5	5
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 2	11	11	2	2	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	3	3	6	6	8	8
Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	5	5	7	7	9	9
Hawken School Hawks	6	6	8	8	10	10
Lakewood High School (OH) Rangers	7	7	9	9	11	11
Rocky River High School Pirates 1	8	8	10	10	2	2
Rocky River High School Pirates 2	9	9	11	11	3	3
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity	10	10	2	2	5	5
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1	11	11	3	3	6	6
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 2	2	2	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Grosse IIe High School	Molly Matthews '19 [1-6]	Faith Gaertner '20 [1-4] Danny Heilman '23 [5-6]
Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1	Ian Reimel '19 [1-6]	Danny Heilman '23 [1-2] Michael Kalata '18 [3-6]
Grosse IIe High School	Alex White '20 [1-6]	Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-2] Kyla Bugarin '20 [3-6]
Grosse Ile - Scarlet 2	Maren Matthews '22 [1-6]	Reyn White '19 [1-4] Jimmy Souilliere '23 [5-6]
Hawken School	Fisher Allyn '21	Gordon Johnson '18
Hawks	Michaela O'Donnell '20	Fisher Allyn '21
Lakewood High School (OH)	Luke Healy '18 [1-6]	Max Boland '19 [1-2] Kiera Hoye '19 [3-6]
Rangers	Parker Polen '20 [1-6]	Jack Wynn '20 [1-2, 5-6] Max Boland '19 [3-4]
Rocky River High School	Libby Weixel '18	Natalie Dugan '18
Pirates 1	Margot Dugan '20	Blair Pichola '23
Rocky River High School	Santiago Echevarria '22	Aiden Carter '22
Pirates 2	Charlie Movius '22	Joey Bonacci '21
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Ellen Petrigan '22 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Quasebarth '20 [3-4]	Grace Quasebarth '20 [1-2, 5-6] Ellen Petrigan '22 [3-4]
Varsity	Ashlin N. Fegen '20	Moira Steinmetz '20
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Spencer Barnes '20	Jp Wynn '19
Wildcats 1	Will Carroll '19	Will Thorton '19
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Jp Starck '18	Eddie Keck '19
Wildcats 2	Patrick Sheehan '18	Ben Slater '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Fall #3 @ The Foundry

Division A

Division B

From the notes