Detroit Country Day School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.30 (fleet -0.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–5 (17%) as crew 12–25 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 8–10 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 2–3 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 1–5 | 2–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 13–30 against 14.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-13 | MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | crew | 0.72 | 0.77 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-03-24 | Spring Chill Team Race | crew | 0.78 | 1.84 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.17 | 0.74 | 2–3 | 1.6 | +0.57 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | crew | 0.39 | -1.34 | 2–12 | 5.0 | −1.73 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | skipper | -0.35 | -0.85 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.49 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Chill Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| MISSA East Baker Pre-Qualifier | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.8 | -1.03 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.3 | 0.46 |
| October Fun Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Halloween Regatta at PYC | Skipper | A | 6 | 25.3 | -1.65 |
| GP South - Fall Fleet Sunday | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.2 | -0.93 |
| Foundry #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | -0.03 |
| 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Crew | B | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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