2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 3,912 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.417 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	2	3.32	Matthew Tan / Lizzie Balsam 0.86 Henry Gonzalez / Amy Phenjati Jimmy Chen / Bonnie Zhu 0.63	70%	8–1 (89%)	+1.7
2	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue	1	5.28	John Walton / Carly Orhan 2.26 Christiana Scheibner / Drew Clutterbuck 1.73 Emma Turner / Taft Peck 1.27	92%	8–1 (89%)	−0.3
3	Grosse Pointe South High School Gold	4	2.42	Billy Vogel / Matt Schulte Ashley Strong / Eva Paschke 0.73 Jacob Schaupeter / Luc Walz 6–2 Jacob Schaupeter / Gwen Hudson 1–0	55%	7–2 (78%)	+2.0
4	Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)	3	2.88	Max Klassen / Cullen O'Brien Dougie Cowan / Reis Dempsey 6–2 Christina Thomas / Fritz Woerner 6–2 Julia Hudson / Reis Dempsey 0.83 0–1 Ryan Hexter / Fritz Woerner 0–1	63%	6–3 (67%)	+0.3
5	Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	5	2.09 school +0.16	Teddy Prokop / Mclellan Adam Weinkauf / Shay Gualdoni 0.26 Charlie Ramsdell / John Godoshian 1.52	49%	5–4 (56%)	+0.6
6	Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange	8	1.71 school −0.16	Megan O'Gorman / Gilson Ryan 0.18 Singer-Miller Abby / Ryan Patterson Li Chenhao / Ethan Neuvirth	43%	3–6 (33%)	−0.8
7	Detroit Country Day School Mixed Blue	9	0.66 school −0.29	Nate Marsden / Jackie Spiegel 2–3 Kaya Donat / Lukas Denner 0.17 2–3 Ethan Lee / Meghan Guo 0.12 2–3 Nate Marsden / Henry Ashcraft 1–3 Kaya Donat / Meghan Guo 0.07 1–3 Ethan Lee / Jackie Spiegel 0.16 1–3	26%	3–6 (33%)	+0.7
8	West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green	7	1.82	Isabel Dziuba / Noah Stillman 0.46 Matthew Elliott / Anthony Dziuba Jake Elsen / Walter Paliga	44%	3–6 (33%)	−1.0
9	Detroit Country Day School Mixed Gold	6	1.94 school −0.29	Emily Gilson / Liam Hounsell Brian Liu / Michael Williams 0.54 Connagh Rowley / Maddie Yang 0.85	47%	2–7 (22%)	−2.2
10	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Orange-mixed	10	-0.45 school +0.15	Madison Paulus / Lauren Scolari Jon Crowe / Emily Anschuetz 0–5 Phillip Chumiecki / Briana Licari 0–5 Phillip Chumiecki / Teresa Nunez 0–3 Jon Crowe / Lilly Neill 0–3 Jon Crowe / Teresa Nunez 0–1 Phillip Chumiecki / Lilly Neill 0–1	12%	0–9 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	3.32	5.33	8–1	6.3	+2.01	1.7	16%
3	Grosse Pointe South High School Gold	2.42	4.14	7–2	5.0	+1.73	1.9	12%
7	Detroit Country Day School Mixed Blue	0.66	1.24	3–6	2.3	+0.58	0.2	41%
5	Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	2.09	2.52	5–4	4.4	+0.43	0.1	47%
4	Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)	2.88	3.15	6–3	5.7	+0.27	0.1	56%
2	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue	5.28	4.79	8–1	8.3	−0.48	0.1	84%
6	Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange	1.71	1.07	3–6	3.8	−0.64	0.3	85%
8	West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green	1.82	1.07	3–6	4.0	−0.75	0.4	87%
9	Detroit Country Day School Mixed Gold	1.94	0.16	2–7	4.2	−1.78	2.1	98%
10	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Orange-mixed	-0.45	-3.45	0–9	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Matthew Tan	Cranbrook Kingswood	0.86	2.87	8–1	6.3	+2.01	1.7	16%
Henry Gonzalez	Cranbrook Kingswood	1.77	3.78	8–1	6.3	+2.01	1.7	16%
Jimmy Chen	Cranbrook Kingswood	0.63	2.64	8–1	6.3	+2.01	1.7	16%
Ashley Strong	Grosse Pointe South High School	0.73	2.46	7–2	5.0	+1.73	1.9	12%
Jacob Schaupeter	Grosse Pointe South High School	0.49	2.21	7–2	5.0	+1.73	1.9	12%
Christina Thomas	Grosse Pointe South High School	0.60	1.33	6–2	5.3	+0.73	0.3	44%
Nate Marsden	Detroit Country Day School	0.51	1.09	3–6	2.3	+0.58	0.2	41%
Kaya Donat	Detroit Country Day School	0.17	0.74	3–6	2.3	+0.58	0.2	41%
Ethan Lee	Detroit Country Day School	0.12	0.69	3–6	2.3	+0.58	0.2	41%
Adam Weinkauf	Grosse Pointe North High School	0.26	0.69	5–4	4.4	+0.43	0.1	47%
Charlie Ramsdell	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.52	1.95	5–4	4.4	+0.43	0.1	47%
Emily Gilson	Detroit Country Day School	0.69	-1.09	2–7	4.2	−1.78	2.1	98%
Brian Liu	Detroit Country Day School	0.54	-1.24	2–7	4.2	−1.78	2.1	98%
Connagh Rowley	Detroit Country Day School	0.85	-0.93	2–7	4.2	−1.78	2.1	98%
Jon Crowe	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	-0.13	-3.13	0–9	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%
Phillip Chumiecki	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	-0.14	-3.15	0–9	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-5	def.		MIXED Orange	3-4-6
2		Gold	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
3		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-6	def.		Blue	3-4-5
4		Norsemen	1-2-5	def.		Mixed Gold	3-4-6
5		Mixed Blue	1-2-6	def.		MIXED Green	3-4-5
6		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-6	def.		Gold	3-4-5
7		Blue	1-2-3	def.		MIXED Orange	4-5-6
8		Norsemen	1-2-4	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	3-5-6
9		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-3	def.		Mixed Blue	4-5-6
10		MIXED Green	1-2-4	def.		Mixed Gold	3-5-6
11		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Gold	4-5-6
12		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-6	def.		Norsemen	3-4-5
13		MIXED Orange	1-2-4	def.		Mixed Blue	3-5-6
14		Mixed Gold	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
15		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-5	def.		MIXED Green	3-4-6
16		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Norsemen	4-5-6
17		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Mixed Blue	4-5-6
18		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-6	def.		Mixed Gold	3-4-5
19		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-3	def.		MIXED Orange	4-5-6
20		MIXED Green	1-2-6	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	3-4-5
21		Norsemen	1-3-4	def.		Mixed Blue	2-5-6
22		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Mixed Gold	4-5-6
23		Gold	2-3-4	def.		Cranbrook Blue	1-5-6
24		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
25		MIXED Orange	1-2-6	def.		MIXED Green	3-4-5
26		Mixed Blue	1-2-6	def.		Mixed Gold	3-4-5
27		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-3	def.		Norsemen	4-5-6
28		Blue	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
29		Gold	1-2-3	def.		MIXED Orange	4-5-6
30		MIXED Green	1-3-5	def.		Yellow (Mixed)	2-4-6
31		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-6	def.		Mixed Gold	3-4-5
32		Mixed Blue	1-2-5	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	3-4-6
33		Norsemen	1-3-6	def.		MIXED Orange	2-4-5
34		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Yellow (Mixed)	4-5-6
35		Gold	1-3-4	def.		MIXED Green	2-5-6
36		Cranbrook Blue	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
37		Mixed Gold	2-3-5	def.		MIXED Orange	1-4-6
38		Yellow (Mixed)	1-2-6	def.		Mixed Blue	3-4-5
39		Gold	1-2-4	def.		Norsemen	3-5-6
40		Blue	1-2-4	def.		MIXED Green	3-5-6
41		MIXED Orange	1-2-3	def.		BRMS Orange-mixed	4-5-6
42		Cranbrook Blue	1-4-5	def.		Yellow (Mixed)	2-3-6
43		Gold	1-2-3	def.		Mixed Gold	4-5-6
44		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Mixed Blue	4-5-6
45		Norsemen	1-3-4	def.		MIXED Green	2-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	Henry Gonzalez '21 Jimmy Chen '18 Matthew Tan '19	Amy Phenjati '18 Bonnie Zhu '19 Lizzie Balsam '18
	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue	Christiana Scheibner '19 Emma Turner '19 John Walton '18	Drew Clutterbuck '19 Taft Peck '18 Carly Orhan '19
	Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold	Ashley Strong '20 Billy Vogel '21 Jacob Schaupeter '21	Eva Paschke '20 Matt Schulte '20 Luc Walz '20 Gwen Hudson '20
	Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	Christina Thomas '21 Dougie Cowan '22 Julia Hudson '20 Max Klassen '22 Ryan Hexter '21	Fritz Woerner '20 Reis Dempsey '19 Cullen O'Brien '22
	Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	Adam Weinkauf '18 Charlie Ramsdell '20 Teddy Prokop '19	Shay Gualdoni '21 John Godoshian '18 Mclellan '19
	Bloomfield Hills High School	MIXED Orange	Li Chenhao '21 Megan O'Gorman '18 Singer-Miller Abby '19	Ethan Neuvirth '18 Gilson Ryan '21 Ryan Patterson '19
	Detroit Country Day School	Mixed Blue	Ethan Lee '19 Kaya Donat '20 Nate Marsden '19	Jackie Spiegel '18 Meghan Guo '19 Lukas Denner '18 Henry Ashcraft '21
	West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Green	Isabel Dziuba '19 Jake Elsen '21 Matthew Elliott '20	Noah Stillman '20 Walter Paliga '22 Anthony Dziuba '21
	Detroit Country Day School	Mixed Gold	Brian Liu '18 Connagh Rowley '18 Emily Gilson '18	Michael Williams '20 Maddie Yang '19 Liam Hounsell '23
	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Orange-mixed	Jon Crowe '18 Madison Paulus '20 Phillip Chumiecki '22	Emily Anschuetz '19 Teresa Nunez '19 Lilly Neill '18 Lauren Scolari '20 Briana Licari '18