| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rocky River High School | Mixed | 11–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 9–2 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 5–6 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Mixed Frosty | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Grosse Pointe North High School | Norsemen | 4–7 |
| 6 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White | 2–9 |
| 7 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Yellow (Mixed) | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,075 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 36 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.460 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rocky River High School Mixed | 4.76 | 7.76 | 11–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 5.3 | 1% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School Mixed Frosty | 2.27 | 3.33 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 5 | Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen | 1.91 | 2.78 | 4–7 | 2.7 | +0.87 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 5.93 | 5.20 | 9–2 | 9.7 | −0.73 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School White | 2.25 | 1.26 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.99 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3.96 | 2.94 | 5–6 | 6.6 | −1.02 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 7 | Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed) | 2.66 | -0.34 | 0–6 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luuk Schmitt | Detroit Country Day School | 0.78 | 1.84 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Jack Bull | Detroit Country Day School | 0.81 | 1.87 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Nicole Millerman | Detroit Country Day School | 0.88 | 1.93 | 5–6 | 3.3 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Lindsey Ramsdell | Grosse Pointe North High School | 1.24 | 2.10 | 4–7 | 2.7 | +0.87 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Adam Weinkauf | Grosse Pointe North High School | 0.44 | 1.31 | 4–7 | 2.7 | +0.87 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Anna Carron | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.03 | 0.03 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.99 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Ashley Strong | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.59 | -0.40 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.99 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Dominic Dulac | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.64 | 0.62 | 5–6 | 6.6 | −1.02 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Christina Thomas | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–6 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
White | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mixed Frosty | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Norsemen | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Mixed Frosty | 1-2-5 | def. | |
White | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mixed Frosty | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Gold | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Mixed Frosty | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Norsemen | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Norsemen | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Gold | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
White | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Mixed Frosty | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Norsemen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed Frosty | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Norsemen | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gold | 3-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
