Spring Lake High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–21 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 6–1 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 19–21 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | La Piñata Regatta | skipper | 0.80 | 1.55 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.48 | 1.59 | 5–5 | 3.3 | +1.10 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 2017-04-08 | DCDS Team Race 4/8 | skipper | 0.44 | 0.09 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.10 | -0.82 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.92 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Red Hat Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.1 | 2.64 |
| Banks Blackwell Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 2.94 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tulip Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.15 |
| Lake Macatawa Challenge | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | -0.60 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.90 |
| TC BOBBER REGATTA | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 1.46 |
| St. Clair Classic | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 0.55 |
| PYC Halloween Regatta DCDS | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.8 | 0.32 |
| PYC Fun Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 0.39 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.9 | 0.29 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| La Piñata Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| DCDS/PYC | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.3 | 1.01 |
| Culver Spring Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.7 | 0.70 |
| October Fun Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.0 | 0.56 |
| Halloween Regatta at PYC | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | 1.36 |
| Coast Guard City Classic Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 1.87 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | -0.05 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tulip Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 0.24 |
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | 0.15 |
| DCDS Team Race 4/8 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Cherry Festival Invite | Crew | B | 6 | 16.0 | — |
| Banks Blackwell | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.0 | 0.01 |
| 2016 Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.3 | 0.41 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Forward | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | -1.84 |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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