Banks Blackwell Invitational

HostCulver Academies
Date09/30/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	39	51	90
2	Lyons Township High School	Lions	76	30	106
3	New Trier HS	Trevian	39	71	110
4	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	65	52	117
5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	37	89	126
6	Spring Lake High School	Red	77	58	135
7	Culver Academies	Eagles	78	71	149
8	East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity	67	83	150
9	Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	72	95	167
10	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	92	83	175
11	Detroit Country Day School	MIXED	111	89	200
12	Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	113	89	202
13	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	99	111	210
14	Bloomfield Hills High School	Black Hawks	109	130	239
15	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	134	133	267
16	Beacon Academy	Varsity	156	137	293

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	2	1	DSQ	3	8	1	1	1	1	2	37	Aisling Sullivan '18 Cristina Dombrowski '19
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	1	3	4	7	2	3	3	7	2	7	39	Harrison George '18 Kaya Donat '20
New Trier HS	Trevian	7	9	1	1	1	4	2	3	6	5	39	Dylan Cotter '18 Ben Spring '18
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	4	4	11	12	9	11	4	5	4	1	65	Lillian Nemeth '18 Emerson Wright '19
East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity	6	10	7	2	5	2	9	4	13	9	67	Ben Lilly '18 [1-10] Regan Pitts '18 [1-2] Annika Lampen '21 [3-10]
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	14	8	2	4	3	13	5	2	8	13	72	Sherman Thompson '18 Berenger Jeannides '18
Lyons Township High School	Lions	11	2	5	14	7	12	6	6	10	3	76	Chris Hummel '18 [1-10] Nick Bezanis '20 [1-6] Sam Wojcik '19 [7-10]
Spring Lake High School	Red	3	7	6	6	4	6	13	DSQ	9	6	77	Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Peterson '20 [3-4, 7-8] Abby Airo '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Grace Kucharski '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Culver Academies	Eagles	9	5	8	5	11	5	8	12	3	12	78	Nathaniel Barret '19 [1-2, 5-8] Beckett Kumler '20 [3-4, 9-10] Jacqueline Oeschger '18 [1-2, 5-8] Hanna Siwek '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	8	11	9	11	12	10	12	10	5	4	92	Wyatt Harley '21 Tj Boland '19
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	13	12	13	10	10	8	7	11	7	8	99	Jack Suvari '19 [1-10] Miles Ford '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Elliot Robinson '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Bloomfield Hills High School	Black Hawks	10	13	10	13	13	7	10	8	14	11	109	Jakob Kuipers '18 [1-6] Megan O'Gorman '18 [7-10] Emily Gilson '18 [1-4] Ryan Patterson '19 [5-10]
Detroit Country Day School	MIXED	15	15	3	8	6	15	15	13	11	10	111	Casey Gignac '18 [1-6] Jack Bergman '20 [7-10] Patrick Hummel '21 [1-6]
Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	5	6	12	15	14	14	11	9	12	15	113	Katie Faris '19 [1-10] Alexis Cohn '19 [1-7] Rachel Murphy '19 [8-10]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	12	14	14	9	16	9	14	OCS	15	14	134	Bridget Falkenhayn '19 [1-10] Angelina Simon '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cassie Hollick '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Beacon Academy	Varsity	16	16	15	16	15	16	16	14	16	16	156	Spencer Darwall '20 [1-10] Harper Williams '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] John Derdak '21 [3-4, 7-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Lyons Township High School	Lions	2	1	1	6	3	3	2	6	5	1	30	Lily Wojcik '18 Abbey Walls '19
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	10	4	7	2	5	4	3	7	4	5	51	Connagh Rowley '18 Ethan Lee '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	9	OCS	2	1	4	5	4	5	1	4	52	Matteo Torquati '19 [1-10] Alec Wyers '19 [1-6] Otto Brown '19 [7-10]
Spring Lake High School	Red	1	2	10	9	12	2	5	1	8	8	58	Bryson Hough '21 [1-2, 7-8] Griffin Phares '21 [3-4, 9-10] Zak Colvin '19 [5-6] Griffin Phares '21 [1-2, 7-8] Zak Colvin '19 [3-4, 9-10] Bryson Hough '21 [5-6]
New Trier HS	Trevian	5	9	13	DSQ	6	1	1	2	3	14	71	Dylan Hardt '20 Izzy Cox '19
Culver Academies	Eagles	7	3	6	8	2	11	OCS	4	6	7	71	Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 5-8] Charlotte Root '18 [3-4, 9-10] Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5-8] Sierra Blemaster '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	4	OCS	8	4	9	6	13	11	2	9	83	Liliana Taub '19 Asha Baddi '20
East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity	6	7	4	15	8	8	14	8	11	2	83	Kate Mackeigan '19 [1-10] Hazel Mcgovern '21 [1-4, 9-10] Regan Pitts '18 [5-8]
Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	3	8	5	7	OCS	10	7	14	12	6	89	Elizabeth Gildea '20 [1-10] Rachel Murphy '19 [1-7] Alexis Cohn '19 [8-10]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	8	5	9	3	7	12	9	13	13	10	89	Caroline Sandoval '19 [1-5] Serena White '19 [6-10] Nicholas Alfano '18 [1-5] Liam Anderson '21 [6-8] Luke Goldman '21 [9-10]
Detroit Country Day School	MIXED	14	10	3	5	1	14	12	12	7	11	89	Caleb Lewinski '18 [1-2, 5-7, 9-10] Brian Liu '18 [3-4, 8] Anna Russo '20 [1-4, 9-10] Brian Liu '18 [5-7] Caleb Lewinski '18 [8]
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	OCS	OCS	12	10	10	7	6	3	10	3	95	Mitchell Thompson '19 Saunders Thompson '21
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	11	6	14	12	11	9	8	9	15	16	111	Maxime Visa '19 [1-10] Will Mccrory '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Oliver Pasek '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Bloomfield Hills High School	Black Hawks	13	11	11	11	OCS	13	10	15	14	15	130	Jacki Spiegel '18 [1-6] Joe Shoemaker '18 [7-8, 10] Ryan Patterson '19 [9] Joe Shoemaker '18 [1-2, 5, 9] Megan O'Gorman '18 [3-4] Ryan Patterson '19 [6-8, 10]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	12	12	15	13	13	15	15	16	9	13	133	Grace Beard '21 [1-10] Jimmy Noteman '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Kate Naughton '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Beacon Academy	Varsity	15	13	16	14	14	16	11	10	16	12	137	Daren Nerad '20 [1-10] Willem Aspinall '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Nicholas Harriott '21 [3-4, 7-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.160+0.16

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Beacon Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Culver Academies Eagles	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Detroit Country Day School MIXED	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lyons Township High School Lions	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
New Trier HS Trevian	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Spring Lake High School Red	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Trinity High School (IL) Blazers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Beacon Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Bloomfield Hills High School Black Hawks	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Culver Academies Eagles	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Detroit Country Day School MIXED	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lyons Township High School Lions	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
New Trier HS Trevian	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Spring Lake High School Red	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Trinity High School (IL) Blazers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Beacon Academy	Spencer Darwall '20 [1-10]	Harper Williams '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] John Derdak '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity	Daren Nerad '20 [1-10]	Willem Aspinall '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Nicholas Harriott '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Bloomfield Hills High School	Jakob Kuipers '18 [1-6] Megan O'Gorman '18 [7-10]	Emily Gilson '18 [1-4] Ryan Patterson '19 [5-10]
Black Hawks	Jacki Spiegel '18 [1-6] Joe Shoemaker '18 [7-8, 10] Ryan Patterson '19 [9]	Joe Shoemaker '18 [1-2, 5, 9] Megan O'Gorman '18 [3-4] Ryan Patterson '19 [6-8, 10]
Culver Academies	Nathaniel Barret '19 [1-2, 5-8] Beckett Kumler '20 [3-4, 9-10]	Jacqueline Oeschger '18 [1-2, 5-8] Hanna Siwek '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Eagles	Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 5-8] Charlotte Root '18 [3-4, 9-10]	Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5-8] Sierra Blemaster '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Detroit Country Day School	Casey Gignac '18 [1-6] Jack Bergman '20 [7-10]	Patrick Hummel '21 [1-6]
MIXED	Caleb Lewinski '18 [1-2, 5-7, 9-10] Brian Liu '18 [3-4, 8]	Anna Russo '20 [1-4, 9-10] Brian Liu '18 [5-7] Caleb Lewinski '18 [8]
Detroit Country Day School	Harrison George '18	Kaya Donat '20
Varsity	Connagh Rowley '18	Ethan Lee '19
East Grand Rapids	Ben Lilly '18 [1-10]	Regan Pitts '18 [1-2] Annika Lampen '21 [3-10]
EGR Varsity	Kate Mackeigan '19 [1-10]	Hazel Mcgovern '21 [1-4, 9-10] Regan Pitts '18 [5-8]
Evanston Township HS	Jack Suvari '19 [1-10]	Miles Ford '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Elliot Robinson '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Wildkits	Maxime Visa '19 [1-10]	Will Mccrory '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Oliver Pasek '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Hinsdale Central High School	Sherman Thompson '18	Berenger Jeannides '18
Varsity	Mitchell Thompson '19	Saunders Thompson '21
Loyola Academy	Bridget Falkenhayn '19 [1-10]	Angelina Simon '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cassie Hollick '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Ramblers	Grace Beard '21 [1-10]	Jimmy Noteman '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Kate Naughton '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Lyons Township High School	Chris Hummel '18 [1-10]	Nick Bezanis '20 [1-6] Sam Wojcik '19 [7-10]
Lions	Lily Wojcik '18	Abbey Walls '19
New Trier HS	Dylan Cotter '18	Ben Spring '18
Trevian	Dylan Hardt '20	Izzy Cox '19
Spring Lake High School	Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Peterson '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Abby Airo '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Grace Kucharski '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Red	Bryson Hough '21 [1-2, 7-8] Griffin Phares '21 [3-4, 9-10] Zak Colvin '19 [5-6]	Griffin Phares '21 [1-2, 7-8] Zak Colvin '19 [3-4, 9-10] Bryson Hough '21 [5-6]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Aisling Sullivan '18	Cristina Dombrowski '19
Wolfpack	Caroline Sandoval '19 [1-5] Serena White '19 [6-10]	Nicholas Alfano '18 [1-5] Liam Anderson '21 [6-8] Luke Goldman '21 [9-10]
Trinity High School (IL)	Katie Faris '19 [1-10]	Alexis Cohn '19 [1-7] Rachel Murphy '19 [8-10]
Blazers	Elizabeth Gildea '20 [1-10]	Rachel Murphy '19 [1-7] Alexis Cohn '19 [8-10]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Lillian Nemeth '18	Emerson Wright '19
Maroons	Matteo Torquati '19 [1-10]	Alec Wyers '19 [1-6] Otto Brown '19 [7-10]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Wyatt Harley '21	Tj Boland '19
Varsity	Liliana Taub '19	Asha Baddi '20

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1029.6 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 7.4 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1029.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn · SE 6 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Culver Academies: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Culver Academies by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Culver Academies).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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