St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.31 (fleet 2.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–33 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 6–15 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 7–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 13–33 against 16.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.31 | -0.41 | 1–8 | 2.7 | −1.72 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2019-04-13 | Central Baker pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.07 | 0.45 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2018-05-05 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.85 | -2.15 | 0–10 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.84 | 0.88 | 7–8 | 6.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 59% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Caroline Sandoval |  Fordham University |
'23 |
| ISSA | Caroline Sandoval |  Walter Payton College Preparatory High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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