| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 5–7 |
| 6 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | 3–9 |
| 7 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,118 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 42 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.451 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Trier HS | 4.09 | 7.09 | 12–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 6.7 | <1% |
| 4 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 1.37 | 2.89 | 5–7 | 2.5 | +1.51 | 2.2 | 7% |
| 2 | Latin School of Chicago | 4.41 | 4.61 | 9–3 | 8.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 5 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 3.15 | 2.52 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 6 | Evanston Township HS | 2.27 | 1.46 | 3–9 | 4.3 | −0.81 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 3 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 4.86 | 3.86 | 8–4 | 9.6 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 7 | Loyola Academy | 1.51 | -1.49 | 0–12 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Keenan | New Trier HS | 1.46 | 4.46 | 12–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 6.7 | <1% |
| Alec Wyers | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 0.10 | 1.61 | 5–7 | 2.5 | +1.51 | 2.2 | 7% |
| Emerson Wright | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 0.59 | 2.11 | 5–7 | 2.5 | +1.51 | 2.2 | 7% |
| Alex Laverty | Latin School of Chicago | 0.51 | 0.71 | 9–3 | 8.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Austin Suvari | Evanston Township HS | 1.23 | 0.42 | 3–9 | 4.3 | −0.81 | 0.6 | 89% |
| Ryan Henderson | Evanston Township HS | 1.00 | 0.18 | 3–9 | 4.3 | −0.81 | 0.6 | 89% |
| Owen Patterson | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 2.21 | 1.21 | 8–4 | 9.6 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Wyatt Harley | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.31 | 0.31 | 8–4 | 9.6 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Lexi Chigas | Loyola Academy | 0.85 | -2.15 | 0–12 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Bridget Falkenhayn | Loyola Academy | 0.72 | -2.27 | 0–12 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Maroons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildkits | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Romans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 16 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Maroons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 25 | |
Romans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Maroons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 31 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Romans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Romans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 41 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Romans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
