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Rickover Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 13 13
2 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago JV 1 16 16
3 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 22 22
4 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 1 29 29
5 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 47 47
6 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 52 52
7 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 2 54 54
8 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 55 55
9 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 74 74
10 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 76 76
11 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 78 78
12 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 3 78 78
13 Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 2 79 79
14 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 85 85
15 Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 1 97 97
16 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago JV 2 97 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 3 1 1 1 2 4 1 13 Jack Lavanaway '20
Ryan Mcfadden '20
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago JV 1 1 4 RDG 4 1 1 2 16 Nikolas Chambers '19
Cj Ricci '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 5 22 Joe Goodzey '20
Luke Ackerman '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 1 2 2 5 6 4 6 4 29 Alessandra Torres '20
Asha Baddi '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 6 5 3 5 6 12 10 47 Daniel Fogerty '19
Thaxter Shaw '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 5 9 7 9 8 5 9 52 Caroline Sandoval '19
Kate Crannell '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 2 7 12 4 3 5 DNF 6 54 Liliana Taub '19
Tj Boland '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 9 7 6 14 9 7 3 55 Ted Lutton '20
Nate Koh '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 11 14 16 12 7 2 12 74 Davis Alvarado '20
Moriah Hirsh '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 12 10 12 13 14 8 7 76 Henry Merrilees '20
Nate Alter '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 8 8 11 10 13 11 RAF 78 Sam Geraghty '19
Paris Levin '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 3 14 11 15 8 10 9 11 78 Aviva Kaplan '20
No Show
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 2 15 15 8 11 12 10 8 79 Shaun Rivera '18
Bryant Martinez '18
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 13 13 14 7 11 14 13 85 Zach Biela '20
Casey Murray '20
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 1 10 16 13 16 15 13 14 97 Jose Medrano '18
Maritza Lara '18
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago JV 2 16 6 9 15 DNS DNS DNS 97 James Nappo '20
Lily Loventhal '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Hyman G. Rickover Naval AcademyHyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 11111111
Hyman G. Rickover Naval AcademyHyman G. Rickover Naval Academy JV 22222222
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 15555555
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 26666666
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 37777777
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 415151515151515
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago JV 112121212121212
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago JV 217171717171717
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 18888888
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 29999999
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 310101010101010
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 411111111111111
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack3333333
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 14444444
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 213131313131313
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School JV 316161616161616

Conditions — 05/13/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.7 kn
avg  ·  max 15.8 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From WSW (243°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1010.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →