MISSA Baker Qualifier

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.350 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.39: an orderly event, more orderly than 72% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Minnetonka High School Skippers	2	5.40 school −0.47	Matthew Kickhafer / Rowan O'Connell 2.10 Graham Ness / Lucia Loosbrock 1.66 5–1 Nate Olmsted / Annika Irene 1.94 5–1 Graham Ness / Henry Westlind 1.88 4–0 Nate Olmsted / Connor Wacker 1.95 4–0	76%	9–1 (90%)	+1.4
3	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue	1	5.60 school −0.14	Blake Stackpoole / Taft Peck 1.98 Christiana Scheibner / Drew Clutterbuck 1.67 John Walton / Carly Orhan 2.06 5–1 John Walton / Dominic Dulac 2.10 3–1	80%	8–2 (80%)	+0.0
5	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	4	3.61 school +0.13	Owen Patterson / Asha Baddi 1.81 Wyatt Harley / Aviva Kaplan 1.08 Alessandra Torres / Tj Boland 0.56	46%	6–4 (60%)	+1.4
8	West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	3	3.73	Jack Bull / Bryce Vandenavond 1.31 Nicole Millerman / Isabel Dziuba 1.24 Matthew Elliott / Jake Elsen 1.18	48%	4–6 (40%)	−0.8
9	Grosse Pointe North High School Green	5	3.35 school +0.27	Charlie Ramsdell / John Godoshian 1.29 Lindsey Ramsdell / Ellie Frame 1.27 Teddy Prokop / Shay Gualdoni 0.06 1–3 Shay Gualdoni / Mclellan 0–4 Shay Gualdoni / Teddy Prokop 2–0	39%	3–7 (30%)	−0.9
12	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	6	1.50 school −0.09	Cristina Dombrowski / Liam Anderson Caroline Sandoval / Nicholas Alfano 0.85 Kate Crannell / Luke Goldman 0.32	11%	0–10 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Minnetonka High School	5.40	6.94	9–1	7.6	+1.54	1.1	24%
5	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	3.61	4.56	6–4	4.6	+0.95	0.7	26%
3	Grosse Pointe South High School	5.60	5.64	8–2	8.0	+0.04	0.0	67%
8	West Bloomfield High School	3.73	3.14	4–6	4.8	−0.59	0.3	84%
9	Grosse Pointe North High School	3.35	2.68	3–7	3.9	−0.67	0.3	85%
12	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.50	-1.50	0–10	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nate Olmsted	Minnetonka High School	1.94	3.48	9–1	7.6	+1.54	1.1	24%
Owen Patterson	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.81	2.76	6–4	4.6	+0.95	0.7	26%
Wyatt Harley	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.08	2.03	6–4	4.6	+0.95	0.7	26%
Alessandra Torres	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.56	1.51	6–4	4.6	+0.95	0.7	26%
Jack Bull	West Bloomfield High School	1.31	0.72	4–6	4.8	−0.59	0.3	84%
Nicole Millerman	West Bloomfield High School	1.24	0.65	4–6	4.8	−0.59	0.3	84%
Charlie Ramsdell	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.29	0.62	3–7	3.9	−0.67	0.3	85%
Lindsey Ramsdell	Grosse Pointe North High School	1.27	0.60	3–7	3.9	−0.67	0.3	85%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Grizzlies	1-2-6	def.		Wolfpack	3-4-5
2		Skippers	1-2-6	def.		Blue	3-4-5
3		Lakers Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Green	3-4-5
4		Green	1-2-4	def.		Yellow Jackets	3-5-6
5		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Pirates	3-4-6
6		Scouts	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6
7		Blue	1-2-4	def.		Wolfpack	3-5-6
8		Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.		Green	3-4-6
9		Skippers	1-2-4	def.		Lakers Varsity	3-5-6
10		Green	1-2-6	def.		Blue	3-4-5
11		Yellow Jackets	1-2-5	def.		Scouts	3-4-6
12		Pirates	1-2-5	def.		Wolves	3-4-6
13		Blue	1-3-5	def.		Green	2-4-6
14		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Wolfpack	4-5-6
15		Lakers Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Grizzlies	1-5-6
16		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Scouts	3-4-5
17		Pirates	1-2-6	def.		Green	3-4-5
18		Wolves	2-3-5	def.		Yellow Jackets	1-4-6
19		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Green	4-5-6
20		Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.		Blue	3-4-6
21		Lakers Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Wolfpack	1-5-6
22		Scouts	1-4-5	def.		Pirates	2-3-6
23		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Yellow Jackets	3-4-6
24		Green	2-3-4	def.		Wolves	1-5-6
25		Skippers	1-2-4	def.		Grizzlies	3-5-6
26		Green	1-2-6	def.		Wolfpack	3-4-5
27		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Lakers Varsity	3-4-6
28		Pirates	1-2-3	def.		Yellow Jackets	4-5-6
29		Green	1-3-4	def.		Scouts	2-5-6
30		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6
31		Grizzlies	1-2-3	def.		Wolfpack	4-5-6
32		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Skippers	3-4-6
33		Green	1-2-6	def.		Lakers Varsity	3-4-5
34		Green	1-2-5	def.		Yellow Jackets	3-4-6
35		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Pirates	3-4-6
36		Scouts	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6
37		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Wolfpack	4-5-6
38		Grizzlies	1-2-3	def.		Green	4-5-6
39		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Lakers Varsity	4-5-6
40		Green	1-2-5	def.		Blue	3-4-6
41		Scouts	1-3-5	def.		Yellow Jackets	2-4-6
42		Pirates	1-2-6	def.		Wolves	3-4-5
43		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Green	3-4-5
44		Skippers	1-2-4	def.		Wolfpack	3-5-6
45		Grizzlies	1-3-6	def.		Lakers Varsity	2-4-5
46		Scouts	1-2-6	def.		Blue	3-4-5
47		Green	1-2-6	def.		Pirates	3-4-5
48		Yellow Jackets	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6
49		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Green	4-5-6
50		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Grizzlies	3-4-6
51		Lakers Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Wolfpack	3-4-5
52		Scouts	1-2-4	def.		Pirates	3-5-6
53		Blue	1-2-5	def.		Yellow Jackets	3-4-6
54		Green	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6
55		Skippers	2-3-4	def.		Grizzlies	1-5-6
56		Green	1-3-5	def.		Wolfpack	2-4-6
57		Blue	1-2-6	def.		Lakers Varsity	3-4-5
58		Pirates	1-2-6	def.		Yellow Jackets	3-4-5
59		Green	1-2-3	def.		Scouts	4-5-6
60		Blue	1-2-3	def.		Wolves	4-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	Graham Ness '19 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Nate Olmsted '19	Lucia Loosbrock '21 Henry Westlind '19 Rowan O'Connell '20 Annika Irene '19 Connor Wacker '19
	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue	Blake Stackpoole '18 Christiana Scheibner '19 John Walton '18	Taft Peck '18 Drew Clutterbuck '19 Dominic Dulac '20 Carly Orhan '19
	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	Alessandra Torres '20 Owen Patterson '19 Wyatt Harley '21	Tj Boland '19 Asha Baddi '20 Aviva Kaplan '20
	West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	Jack Bull '19 Matthew Elliott '20 Nicole Millerman '19	Bryce Vandenavond '19 Jake Elsen '21 Isabel Dziuba '19
	Grosse Pointe North High School	Green	Charlie Ramsdell '20 Lindsey Ramsdell '18 Shay Gualdoni '21 Teddy Prokop '19	John Godoshian '18 Ellie Frame '18 Teddy Prokop '19 Mclellan '19 Shay Gualdoni '21
	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Caroline Sandoval '19 Cristina Dombrowski '19 Kate Crannell '20	Nicholas Alfano '18 Liam Anderson '21 Luke Goldman '21