MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier

HostHinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg
Date04/21/2018
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	New Trier HS	Trevian	14–2
2	Hinsdale Central High School	Red Devils	13–3
3	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	13–3
4	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	9–7
5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	8–8
6	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	8–8
7	Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	4–7
8	Fenwick High School	Friars	4–7
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	2–9
10	Beacon Academy	Wolves	2–9
11	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	2–9
12	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	2–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,364 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 73 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.507 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.37 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 68% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	New Trier HS Trevian	2	4.26 school −0.59	Lolly Vasilion / Izzy Cox 1.83 Dylan Cotter / Ben Spring 1.71 Noah Barton / Nathan Whisner 1.25	69%	13–2 (87%)	+2.6
2	Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils	6	3.06 school −0.46	Sherman Thompson / Bryan Phlamm 1.29 Mitchell Thompson / Saunders Thompson 0.93 David Phlamm / Berenger Jeannides 1.27	46%	12–3 (80%)	+5.0
3	Latin School of Chicago Romans	1	4.84 school −0.14	Will Davies / Cj Ricci 1.42 Marleigh Belsley / James Nappo 1.95 Nikolas Chambers / Julia Fairbank 1.56	79%	12–3 (80%)	+0.2
4	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	4	3.44 school +0.06	Owen Patterson / Asha Baddi 1.65 Wyatt Harley / Aviva Kaplan Alessandra Torres / Tj Boland 0.52 8–7 Cecily Marden / Tj Boland 1–0	54%	9–7 (56%)	+0.4
5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	7	3.02 school −0.14	Aisling Sullivan / Cristina Dombrowski 2.04 Caroline Sandoval / Nicholas Alfano Kate Crannell / Luke Goldman	46%	7–8 (47%)	+0.1
6	Lake Forest High School Scouts	3	3.67 school +0.47	Nicholas Elsasser / Casey Murray 1.06 Connor Sheridan / Gabe Kobza 1.35 Zach Biela / Michael Janowics 0.42 5–6 Zach Biela / Lucia Marquez 0.43 3–2	59%	8–8 (50%)	−1.5
7	Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	5	2.84 school +0.25	Luke Hosek / Audra Spokas-Jaros 0.92 3–2 William Frendreiss / Bradley Hill 3–2 Jemima Korbel / Matheui Halpin 2–2 Jemima Korbel / Evelyn Barreda 2–1 Luke Hosek / Lauren Mellinger 0.91 1–1 William Frendreiss / No Show 1–1	52%	4–3 (57%)	+0.4
8	Fenwick High School Friars	10	1.84 school −0.47	John Hultquist / Aidan Janc 0.41 3–6 Harry Bearrows / Natalie Skiest 1.33 2–4 Clark Davis / Patrick Kelly 0.31 2–4 Harry Bearrows / Erin Frank 1.28 1–3 Joshua Richards / Patrick Kelly 1–3 John Hultquist / Natalie Skiest 0.41 0–1	31%	3–7 (30%)	−0.1
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	9	2.56 school −0.16	Emerson Wright / Tiangang Huang Lillian Nemeth / Philip Lengyel 1.14 Matteo Torquati / Jason Tothy 0.69	36%	1–6 (14%)	−1.5
10	Beacon Academy Wolves	12	1.58 school +0.42	Preston Anderson / Charlie Gelman 0.74 Greg Wootton / Jack Ruder 0.51 Tasker Peacock / Will Alter -0.41	25%	2–8 (20%)	−0.5
11	Loyola Academy Ramblers	11	1.57 school −0.29	Rory Neenan / Susie Driscoll 1.24 Natalie Norton / Claire Russell 0.46 Hugh Rider / Angelina Simon 1–5 Gregor Leech / Angelina Simon 0.27 0–4	27%	1–9 (10%)	−1.7
12	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	8	2.64 school −0.31	Austin Suvari / Lucy Mulvihill 1.31 Will Robinson / Elias Henke 0.86 Ryan Henderson / Lily Allen 0.45 0–6 Ulysses Hennelly / Lily Allen 1–3	45%	1–9 (10%)	−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Hinsdale Central High School	3.06	5.28	12–3	7.0	+2.22	5.9	1%
1	New Trier HS	4.26	5.75	13–2	10.4	+1.49	2.0	10%
7	Lane Tech College Prep	2.84	3.12	4–3	3.6	+0.28	0.1	54%
4	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	3.44	3.59	9–7	8.6	+0.15	0.0	52%
3	Latin School of Chicago	4.84	4.94	12–3	11.8	+0.10	0.0	60%
5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	3.02	3.06	7–8	6.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
8	Fenwick High School	1.84	1.79	3–7	3.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
10	Beacon Academy	1.58	1.19	2–8	2.5	−0.39	0.1	77%
6	Lake Forest High School	3.67	3.14	8–8	9.5	−0.53	0.4	86%
11	Loyola Academy	1.57	-0.07	1–9	2.7	−1.65	1.4	96%
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	2.56	0.86	1–6	2.5	−1.70	1.3	96%
12	Evanston Township HS	2.64	-0.24	1–9	4.5	−2.88	4.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mitchell Thompson	Hinsdale Central High School	0.93	3.14	12–3	7.0	+2.22	5.9	1%
David Phlamm	Hinsdale Central High School	1.27	3.49	12–3	7.0	+2.22	5.9	1%
Dylan Cotter	New Trier HS	1.71	3.20	13–2	10.4	+1.49	2.0	10%
William Frendreiss	Lane Tech College Prep	0.03	0.31	4–3	3.6	+0.28	0.1	54%
Jemima Korbel	Lane Tech College Prep	1.54	1.82	4–3	3.6	+0.28	0.1	54%
Owen Patterson	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.65	1.80	9–7	8.6	+0.15	0.0	52%
Wyatt Harley	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.90	1.06	9–7	8.6	+0.15	0.0	52%
Aisling Sullivan	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	2.04	2.08	7–8	6.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Alessandra Torres	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.52	0.55	8–7	7.9	+0.03	0.0	59%
Harry Bearrows	Fenwick High School	1.33	1.29	3–7	3.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
Greg Wootton	Beacon Academy	0.51	0.12	2–8	2.5	−0.39	0.1	77%
Tasker Peacock	Beacon Academy	-0.41	-0.80	2–8	2.5	−0.39	0.1	77%
Zach Biela	Lake Forest High School	0.42	-0.11	8–8	9.5	−0.53	0.4	86%
Joshua Richards	Fenwick High School	0.57	-0.22	1–3	1.5	−0.79	0.2	86%
Ulysses Hennelly	Evanston Township HS	0.93	-0.63	1–3	2.0	−1.55	0.8	95%
Rory Neenan	Loyola Academy	1.24	-0.40	1–9	2.7	−1.65	1.4	96%
Natalie Norton	Loyola Academy	0.46	-1.19	1–9	2.7	−1.65	1.4	96%
Emerson Wright	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	0.63	-1.06	1–6	2.5	−1.70	1.3	96%
Austin Suvari	Evanston Township HS	1.31	-1.57	1–9	4.5	−2.88	4.9	>99%
Will Robinson	Evanston Township HS	0.86	-2.02	1–9	4.5	−2.88	4.9	>99%
Ryan Henderson	Evanston Township HS	0.45	-2.55	0–6	2.6	≤−3.00	4.6	>99%
Gregor Leech	Loyola Academy	0.27	-2.73	0–4	1.6	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Beacon Academy	Evanston Township HS	23%	upset
1	2	Latin School of Chicago	Loyola Academy	93%
1	3	Lake Forest High School	Fenwick High School	77%
1	4	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	81%
1	5	Hinsdale Central High School	Lane Tech College Prep	56%
1	6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	55%
1	7	Fenwick High School	Beacon Academy	59%
1	8	New Trier HS	Latin School of Chicago	39%	upset
1	9	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	70%
1	10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Loyola Academy	65%
1	11	Lane Tech College Prep	Beacon Academy	72%
1	12	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	77%
1	13	Hinsdale Central High School	Fenwick High School	69%
1	14	New Trier HS	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	73%
1	15	Evanston Township HS	Lane Tech College Prep	51%
1	16	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Loyola Academy	78%
1	17	Lake Forest High School	Beacon Academy	82%
1	18	Latin School of Chicago	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	86%
1	19	Hinsdale Central High School	Evanston Township HS	62%
1	20	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Loyola Academy	76%
1	21	Lane Tech College Prep	Fenwick High School	65%
1	22	New Trier HS	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	67%
1	23	Hinsdale Central High School	Lake Forest High School	39%	upset
1	24	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	57%
1	25	Fenwick High School	Evanston Township HS	35%	upset
1	26	New Trier HS	Loyola Academy	90%
1	27	Hinsdale Central High School	Beacon Academy	76%
1	28	Latin School of Chicago	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	81%
1	29	Lake Forest High School	Lane Tech College Prep	62%
1	30	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	67%
1	31	New Trier HS	Beacon Academy	88%
1	32	Loyola Academy	Evanston Township HS	32%	upset
1	33	Latin School of Chicago	Fenwick High School	92%
1	34	Hinsdale Central High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	51%
1	35	Lake Forest High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	67%
1	36	Lane Tech College Prep	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	41%	upset
1	37	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	73%
1	38	Latin School of Chicago	Beacon Academy	92%
1	39	Hinsdale Central High School	Loyola Academy	77%
1	40	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Fenwick High School	78%
1	41	Lane Tech College Prep	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	55%
1	42	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Lake Forest High School	38%	upset
1	43	Beacon Academy	Loyola Academy	50%	upset
1	44	Latin School of Chicago	Hinsdale Central High School	80%
1	45	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	59%
1	47	New Trier HS	Lake Forest High School	61%
1	49	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Hinsdale Central High School	58%
1	51	Fenwick High School	Loyola Academy	52%
1	52	Latin School of Chicago	Evanston Township HS	86%
1	54	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest High School	45%	upset
1	55	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Beacon Academy	74%
1	58	Lake Forest High School	Loyola Academy	85%
1	59	New Trier HS	Fenwick High School	87%
1	60	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	60%
1	61	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Beacon Academy	80%
1	63	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	30%	upset
1	64	New Trier HS	Hinsdale Central High School	72%
1	66	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Fenwick High School	72%
2	67	New Trier HS	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	72%
2	68	Hinsdale Central High School	Latin School of Chicago	20%	upset
2	69	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	56%
2	70	Hinsdale Central High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	50%
2	71	New Trier HS	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	65%
2	72	Latin School of Chicago	Lake Forest High School	69%
2	73	Hinsdale Central High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	41%	upset
2	74	Latin School of Chicago	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	80%
2	75	New Trier HS	Lake Forest High School	59%
2	76	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	74%
2	77	Hinsdale Central High School	New Trier HS	28%	upset
2	78	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Lake Forest High School	35%	upset
2	79	Latin School of Chicago	New Trier HS	61%
2	80	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	59%
2	81	Hinsdale Central High School	Lake Forest High School	36%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wolves	1-2-6	def.	Wildkits	3-4-5
2	Romans	1-3-4	def.	Ramblers	2-5-6
3	Scouts	1-3-4	def.	Friars	2-5-6
4	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Maroons	3-4-6
5	Red Devils	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
6	Grizzlies	2-3-5	def.	Wolfpack	1-4-6
7	Friars	1-2-4	def.	Wolves	3-5-6
8	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Romans	3-4-5
9	Scouts	1-3-6	def.	Wildkits	2-4-5
10	Maroons	2-3-4	def.	Ramblers	1-5-6
11	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Wolves	3-4-5
12	Romans	1-2-3	def.	Grizzlies	4-5-6
13	Red Devils	1-2-4	def.	Friars	3-5-6
14	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
15	Wildkits	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
16	Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
17	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
18	Romans	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
19	Red Devils	1-2-3	def.	Wildkits	4-5-6
20	Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.	Ramblers	2-3-6
21	Varsity	1-4-5	def.	Friars	2-3-6
22	Trevian	1-3-6	def.	Grizzlies	2-4-5
23	Red Devils	1-3-6	def.	Scouts	2-4-5
24	Wolfpack	2-3-4	def.	Maroons	1-5-6
25	Friars	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
26	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
27	Red Devils	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
28	Romans	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
29	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
30	Grizzlies	1-3-6	def.	Maroons	2-4-5
31	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
32	Ramblers	2-3-4	def.	Wildkits	1-5-6
33	Romans	2-3-4	def.	Friars	1-5-6
34	Red Devils	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
35	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
36	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-6
37	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Wildkits	3-4-6
38	Romans	1-2-6	def.	Wolves	3-4-5
39	Red Devils	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
40	Grizzlies	2-3-4	def.	Friars	1-5-6
41	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
42	Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.	Scouts	2-3-6
43	Wolves	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
44	Romans	1-3-5	def.	Red Devils	2-4-6
45	Grizzlies	1-3-4	def.	Wildkits	2-5-6
46	Friars	1-3-6	def.	Maroons	2-4-5
47	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
48	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
49	Grizzlies	1-2-6	def.	Red Devils	3-4-5
50	Maroons	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
51	Friars	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
52	Romans	1-3-4	def.	Wildkits	2-5-6
53	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
54	Grizzlies	1-3-6	def.	Scouts	2-4-5
55	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
56	Red Devils	1-3-5	def.	Maroons	2-4-6
57	Romans	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
58	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
59	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Friars	4-5-6
60	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
61	Grizzlies	1-2-3	def.	Wolves	4-5-6
62	Ramblers	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
63	Scouts	2-3-5	def.	Romans	1-4-6
64	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Red Devils	3-5-6
65	Wildkits	1-4-5	def.	Maroons	2-3-6
66	Wolfpack	1-3-5	def.	Friars	2-4-6
67	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
68	Red Devils	1-2-5	def.	Romans	3-4-6
69	Scouts	2-3-5	def.	Grizzlies	1-4-6
70	Red Devils	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
71	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Grizzlies	3-5-6
72	Romans	1-3-6	def.	Scouts	2-4-5
73	Red Devils	1-2-4	def.	Grizzlies	3-5-6
74	Romans	1-4-5	def.	Wolfpack	2-3-6
75	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Scouts	3-4-5
76	Romans	2-3-5	def.	Grizzlies	1-4-6
77	Red Devils	1-3-5	def.	Trevian	2-4-6
78	Wolfpack	1-3-6	def.	Scouts	2-4-5
79	Romans	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
80	Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
81	Red Devils	2-3-4	def.	Scouts	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
New Trier HS	Trevian	Dylan Cotter '18 Lolly Vasilion '18 Noah Barton '19	Ben Spring '18 Izzy Cox '19 Nathan Whisner '19
Hinsdale Central High School	Red Devils	David Phlamm '18 Mitchell Thompson '19 Sherman Thompson '18	Berenger Jeannides '18 Saunders Thompson '21 Bryan Phlamm '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 Will Davies '18	James Nappo '20 Julia Fairbank '19 Cj Ricci '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	Alessandra Torres '20 Cecily Marden '21 Owen Patterson '19 Wyatt Harley '21	Tj Boland '19 Asha Baddi '20 Aviva Kaplan '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Aisling Sullivan '18 Caroline Sandoval '19 Kate Crannell '20	Cristina Dombrowski '19 Nicholas Alfano '18 Luke Goldman '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Connor Sheridan '18 Nicholas Elsasser '18 Zach Biela '20	Gabe Kobza '20 Casey Murray '20 Lucia Marquez '21 Michael Janowics '21
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	Jemima Korbel '18 Luke Hosek '20 William Frendreiss '19	Evelyn Barreda '19 Matheui Halpin '19 Lauren Mellinger '21 Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 No Show Bradley Hill '19
Fenwick High School	Friars	Clark Davis '20 Harry Bearrows '18 John Hultquist '20 Joshua Richards '20	Patrick Kelly '21 Erin Frank '20 Natalie Skiest '19 Aidan Janc '21
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	Emerson Wright '19 Lillian Nemeth '18 Matteo Torquati '19	Tiangang Huang '20 Philip Lengyel '21 Jason Tothy '20
Beacon Academy	Wolves	Greg Wootton '19 Preston Anderson '18 Tasker Peacock '20	Jack Ruder '19 Charlie Gelman '20 Will Alter '19
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	Gregor Leech '18 Hugh Rider '18 Natalie Norton '18 Rory Neenan '18	Angelina Simon '20 Claire Russell '18 Susie Driscoll '18
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	Austin Suvari '19 Ryan Henderson '19 Ulysses Hennelly '20 Will Robinson '18	Lucy Mulvihill '18 Lily Allen '19 Elias Henke '19

Conditions — 04/21/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1030.8 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.3 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 12.6 kn

From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1030.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.22)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.22 means a rating gap counts about 19% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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