Beacon Academy '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 32.88 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 11 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.53 (fleet 0.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–10 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 6–10 against 4.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.51 | 0.12 | 2–8 | 2.5 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2017-10-29 | Z Trophy VTR Regatta | skipper | 0.36 | 2.54 | 4–2 | 1.7 | +2.17 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | -0.30 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.8 | 0.56 |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.6 | 0.04 |
| Fall Scramble | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 1.44 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 1.45 |
| Autumn Classic Central Great Lakes Qualifier | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.1 | 1.06 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| May Madness | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 0.14 |
| Z Trophy March 17 | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | -0.73 |
| Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.1 | -0.59 |
| MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Z Trophy VTR Regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Shepherd Championship 2017 | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.4 | -0.12 |
| Red Hat Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.9 | -0.21 |
| MISSA Great Oaks - Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 0.53 |
| MISSA Great Oaks (C-420 Qualifying) | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | -0.09 |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 18.3 | -1.66 |
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 1.21 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Mallory Central Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | -0.63 |
| IL State Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | -0.09 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2016 | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 0.89 |
| Pewaukee Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | -0.40 |
| MISSA Autumn Classic | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.5 | 0.30 |
| Banks Blackwell | Skipper | A | 5 | 19.2 | -0.45 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| May Madness | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.2 | -0.65 |
| Illinois State Sailing Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Mallory Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.5 | -0.93 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2015 | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.4 | -1.04 |
| Pewaukee Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.5 | 0.01 |
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | 0.01 |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.2 | -0.53 |
| Dusty Water Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 18.6 | -2.21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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