| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Beacon Academy | Wolves | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,959 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 12 matches (58%) with a log-loss of 0.712 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.97 ± 0.84: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Trier HS Trevian | 1 | 2.56 school −0.69 | Garrett Cook / Sammy Stoeber Will Plovanic / Alex Adams Ted Lutton / Quin Doughty | 71% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Beacon Academy Wolves | 4 | 0.76 | Greg Wootton / Willem Aspinall Tasker Peacock / Willem Aspinall Preston Anderson / Graham Knox | 28% | 4–2 (67%) | +2.3 |
| 3 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 2 | 1.77 school −0.21 | Rory Neenan / Angelina Simon 1.25 Natalie Norton / Claire Russell 0.42 Gregor Leech / Susie Driscoll 0.27 | 52% | 2–4 (33%) | −1.1 |
| 4 | Evanston Township HS Wildkits | 3 | 1.66 school −0.17 | Will Robinson / Elliot Robinson 0.83 Ryan Henderson / Will Mccrory 0.29 Jack Suvari / Miles Ford 0.49 | 49% | 1–5 (17%) | −2.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beacon Academy | 0.76 | 2.93 | 4–2 | 1.7 | +2.17 | 2.9 | 5% |
| 1 | New Trier HS | 2.56 | 3.49 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.93 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 3 | Loyola Academy | 1.77 | 0.68 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 4 | Evanston Township HS | 1.66 | -0.50 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.16 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Wootton | Beacon Academy | 0.36 | 2.54 | 4–2 | 1.7 | +2.17 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Tasker Peacock | Beacon Academy | -0.43 | 1.74 | 4–2 | 1.7 | +2.17 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Will Plovanic | New Trier HS | 1.02 | 1.96 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.93 | 0.4 | 44% |
| Rory Neenan | Loyola Academy | 1.25 | 0.16 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Natalie Norton | Loyola Academy | 0.42 | -0.67 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Gregor Leech | Loyola Academy | 0.27 | -0.82 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Will Robinson | Evanston Township HS | 0.83 | -1.33 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.16 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Ryan Henderson | Evanston Township HS | 0.29 | -1.87 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.16 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Jack Suvari | Evanston Township HS | 0.49 | -1.67 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −2.16 | 2.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New Trier HS | Evanston Township HS | 66% | |
| 1 | 2 | Loyola Academy | Beacon Academy | 73% | |
| 1 | 3 | Evanston Township HS | Loyola Academy | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | New Trier HS | Beacon Academy | 80% | |
| 1 | 5 | New Trier HS | Loyola Academy | 65% | |
| 1 | 6 | Beacon Academy | Evanston Township HS | 33% | upset |
| 2 | 7 | New Trier HS | Evanston Township HS | 67% | |
| 2 | 8 | Beacon Academy | Loyola Academy | 32% | upset |
| 2 | 9 | Loyola Academy | Evanston Township HS | 51% | |
| 2 | 10 | Beacon Academy | New Trier HS | 20% | upset |
| 2 | 11 | New Trier HS | Loyola Academy | 67% | |
| 2 | 12 | Beacon Academy | Evanston Township HS | 34% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Ramblers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolves | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Trevian | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolves | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Wolves | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Wolves | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Wolves | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Garrett Cook '20 Ted Lutton '20 Will Plovanic '19 |
Sammy Stoeber '20 Quin Doughty '21 Alex Adams '20 |
|
Beacon Academy | Wolves | Greg Wootton '19 Preston Anderson '18 Tasker Peacock '20 |
Willem Aspinall '21 Graham Knox '20 |
|
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | Gregor Leech '18 Natalie Norton '18 Rory Neenan '18 |
Susie Driscoll '18 Claire Russell '18 Angelina Simon '20 |
|
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | Jack Suvari '19 Ryan Henderson '19 Will Robinson '18 |
Miles Ford '19 Will Mccrory '19 Elliot Robinson '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
