Loyola Academy '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 0.62 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 (fleet 1.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–41 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–13 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 3–23 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 14–41 against 16.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.24 | -0.40 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.65 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2018-04-15 | Central Team Race Scrimmage | skipper | 1.17 | 0.49 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2017-10-29 | Z Trophy VTR Regatta | skipper | 1.25 | 0.16 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.09 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2017-05-20 | LMSS Team Race VARSITY | skipper | 1.24 | -1.76 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| 2017-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.01 | 1.37 | 3–13 | 2.4 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.64 | 3.26 | 7–1 | 4.6 | +2.62 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| May Madness | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 1.76 |
| Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | -0.15 |
| Central Team Race Scrimmage | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| 2018 Illinois State Sailing Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 1.15 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Z Trophy VTR Regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Shepherd Championship 2017 | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 1.01 |
| Red Hat Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.7 | 0.45 |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 14.6 | -0.45 |
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.6 | 0.33 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Z Trophy #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 0.69 |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.4 | 0.17 |
| MISSA Icebreaker | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.6 | 0.25 |
| MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| Mallory Central Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | -0.06 |
| LMSS Team Race VARSITY | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | -0.11 |
| MISSA Autumn Classic | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.0 | 0.18 |
| Kick Off Classic 2016 420's | Crew | B | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | 0.99 |
| Cherry Festival Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.1 | -0.16 |
| Banks Blackwell | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.7 | 0.36 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Illinois State Sailing Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.4 | -0.04 |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| 2016 Ice Breaker | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 0.54 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2015 | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.9 | 0.02 |
| Pewaukee Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.1 | 0.10 |
| Kick Off Classic | Crew | A | 2 | 16.0 | — |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.5 | 0.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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