| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | 12–1 |
| 2 |  |
Orono High School | Scarlet | 10–3 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 7–6 |
| 4 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | 4–9 |
| 5 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 6–4 |
| 6 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Red | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,532 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 46 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.428 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 6.01 | 7.78 | 12–1 | 9.9 | +1.77 | 1.8 | 14% |
| 2 | Orono High School Scarlet | 4.99 | 6.29 | 10–3 | 7.5 | +1.30 | 1.7 | 11% |
| 6 | Evanston Township HS Wildkits | 1.93 | 2.87 | 4–6 | 2.8 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 7 | Benilde St Margarets Red | 1.54 | 2.16 | 3–7 | 2.3 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 5 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 4.19 | 3.73 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School Navy | 4.99 | 4.37 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 4 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 4.35 | 2.95 | 4–9 | 6.3 | −1.40 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 8 | Loyola Academy Ramblers | 1.68 | -1.32 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bolgar | Orono High School | 0.99 | 3.99 | 4–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Cort Vandlik | Minnetonka High School | 2.39 | 4.17 | 12–1 | 9.9 | +1.77 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Nate Olmsted | Minnetonka High School | 1.84 | 3.62 | 12–1 | 9.9 | +1.77 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Ryan Henderson | Evanston Township HS | 0.43 | 1.37 | 4–6 | 2.8 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Will Robinson | Evanston Township HS | 0.61 | 1.55 | 4–6 | 2.8 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Austin Suvari | Evanston Township HS | 1.06 | 1.99 | 4–6 | 2.8 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Riley Norman | Benilde St Margarets | 1.05 | 1.67 | 3–7 | 2.3 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Erich Pinske | Orono High School | 1.41 | 2.01 | 6–3 | 5.2 | +0.60 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Jason Davis | Southwest Senior High School | 1.84 | 1.38 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Wiley Hunt | Wayzata High School | 1.18 | 0.56 | 7–6 | 8.1 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Gregor Leech | Loyola Academy | 0.12 | -2.88 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Rory Neenan | Loyola Academy | 1.24 | -1.76 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Natalie Norton | Loyola Academy | 0.27 | -2.73 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Red | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Navy | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Wildkits | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Wildkits | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scarlet | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Navy | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Red | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Skippers 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navy | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Navy | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 2-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
