Benilde St Margarets '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 (fleet 1.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–40 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 5–28 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 15–40 against 14.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | LMSS Team Race JV/Mixed | skipper | 1.08 | 4.00 | 10–2 | 5.0 | +2.91 | 7.5 | <1% |
| 2017-05-20 | LMSS Team Race VARSITY | skipper | 1.05 | 1.67 | 3–7 | 2.3 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2017-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.01 | -0.04 | 1–10 | 2.0 | −1.05 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 2017-04-22 | MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.99 | -0.57 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.82 | -2.17 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Conf. #3 - Spring | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 0.50 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Conference Regatta #4 Fall 2018 SCSS | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 1.48 |
| Dusty Waters West Great Lake Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 0.54 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Conference #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | -0.14 |
| LMSS Team Race JV/Mixed | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | 1.40 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| West Mallory Pre Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 0.62 |
| MN Conference Finale | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 0.65 |
| MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 16 | 14.7 | -0.11 |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| LMSS Team Race VARSITY | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Conference #4 | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.6 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Croix Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 0.60 |
| MN Conference Finale - Calhoun | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 0.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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