| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 9–2 |
| 3 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 8–3 |
| 4 |  |
Orono High School | Scarlet | 7–4 |
| 5 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 7–4 |
| 6 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 7–4 |
| 7 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 5–6 |
| 8 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 5–6 |
| 9 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 3–8 |
| 10 |  |
East Grand Rapids | EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3–8 |
| 11 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Red | 1–10 |
| 12 |  |
Wayzata High School | Trojans | 1–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,374 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 68 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.514 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 5.46 | 7.83 | 10–1 | 7.2 | +2.36 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 4 | Orono High School | 4.82 | 5.95 | 9–4 | 6.7 | +1.14 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 7 | Detroit Country Day School | 3.19 | 4.30 | 5–6 | 3.2 | +1.11 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.58 | 6.67 | 9–2 | 7.5 | +1.09 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 6 | New Trier HS | 4.81 | 5.05 | 7–5 | 6.5 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 8 | Southwest Senior High School | 4.19 | 4.29 | 5–6 | 4.8 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Minnetonka High School | 5.89 | 5.84 | 8–3 | 8.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 9 | Lake Forest High School | 3.72 | 3.12 | 3–8 | 4.0 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 10 | East Grand Rapids | 4.11 | 3.08 | 3–8 | 4.7 | −1.03 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 11 | Benilde St Margarets | 2.48 | 1.43 | 1–10 | 2.0 | −1.05 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 5 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 6.41 | 4.90 | 7–5 | 9.6 | −1.51 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 12 | Wayzata High School | 3.61 | 1.26 | 1–10 | 3.7 | −2.35 | 3.1 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Trojans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Scouts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Scouts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 39 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Trevian | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Scarlet | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 2-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Trevian | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3-4-5 |
| 58 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 59 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 62 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
EGR Sailing Pioneers | 3-5-6 |
| 64 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 67 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
