Minnetonka High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02 (fleet 3.26) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–13 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 4 | 35–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 35–13 against 34.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.54 | 1.55 | 5–7 | 7.2 | −0.99 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2017-05-20 | LMSS Team Race VARSITY | skipper | 2.39 | 4.17 | 12–1 | 9.9 | +1.77 | 1.8 | 14% |
| 2017-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.34 | 2.29 | 8–3 | 8.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2017-04-22 | MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.19 | 2.83 | 10–2 | 9.1 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| West Mallory Pre Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.0 | 2.07 |
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.3 | 2.36 |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| LMSS Team Race VARSITY | Skipper | TR | 13 | 92% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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